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VERIFIED RESULT · LEAGUE ONE

Five for Mansfield and a promotion-race swing

The 5-2 final score is locked into the current League One table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the result changes both clubs' promotion outlooks.

FINAL SCOREMansfield 5-2 Luton
MANSFIELD POINTS73.3 → 74.8
MANSFIELD AUTOMATIC19.72% → 25.15%
LUTON AUTOMATIC36.02% → 30.18%
MANSFIELD POINTS

+1.5 points

Mansfield remain fourth in the mean table, but move closer to the automatic places.

MANSFIELD AUTOMATIC

19.72% → 25.15%

The win raises their top-two chance by 5.43 percentage points.

LUTON POINTS

77.4 → 76.2

Luton remain projected third after the defeat.

LUTON TITLE

19.35% → 15.37%

The seven-goal loss cuts their title chance by 3.98 percentage points.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Mansfield Town v Luton Town unresolved while retaining every other verified League One result, including AFC Wimbledon's 1-0 win over Wigan.100,000 paths · seed 260831
ASSUMPTION 2The after run locks Mansfield's verified 5-2 win before simulating every remaining League One fixture.100,000 paths · seed 260831
ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, isolating this completed result without changing team-strength inputs.100,000 paths · seed 260831
ASSUMPTION 4Automatic promotion means finishing first or second. The play-off probability is the published probability of finishing third through sixth.100,000 paths · seed 260831
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