-3.9 points
Tottenham drop two projected places when both confirmed departures are applied.
Romero and Spence leave Tottenham: confirmed model impact
Atletico Madrid and Inter officially confirmed Romero and Spence on 15 August. Both departures are now in the live forecast, and 100,000 matched season paths show the isolated Romero step before the combined Tottenham change.
SPURS POSITION7th → 9th
PROJECTED POINTS56.3 → 52.4
TOP FOUR20.51% → 11.21%
TOP SIX36.85% → 22.88%
-9.30 percentage points
The model's Champions League race becomes materially harder without equivalent replacements.
-13.97 percentage points
Spurs fall from 36.85% to 22.88% for a top-six finish.
+4.21 percentage points
The tail risk rises from 3.49% to 7.70%, although survival remains the central expectation.
DEAL-BY-DEAL BRIDGE
Romero drives the largest move, then Spence adds another step down
56.3 → 53.6
-2.7 projected points with every other input held constant.
53.6 → 52.4
-1.2 further projected points after his confirmed Inter move.
20.51% → 11.21%
-9.30 percentage points across the two verified departures.
WHY THE MODEL MOVES
Spurs lose their captain and a two-way starting wing-back
The live model removes Romero's defensive, build-up and leadership contribution, then Spence's wide progression and defensive recovery value, from every unresolved league fixture. No benefit is added to a Premier League rival because Atletico and Inter sit outside this forecast.
Atletico Madrid confirmed Romero through 30 June 2031 after he passed his medical. Inter confirmed Spence on a permanent deal through the same date. Club fees were not disclosed; Reuters reported about £34.2 million and £30 million respectively.
ASSUMPTIONS
How the confirmed departures are applied
EVIDENCE