-1.69 percentage points
Liverpool remain fourth in the mean table, but their title probability falls to 7.07%.
Curtis Jones signs for Inter: confirmed model impact
Inter have confirmed Jones's permanent move from Liverpool. The transfer is now applied to the live Premier League, Serie A and Champions League forecasts, with matched 100,000-path runs isolating the effect.
LIVERPOOL POINTS63.0 → 61.9
LIVERPOOL TITLE8.76% → 7.07%
LIVERPOOL TOP FOUR47.62% → 42.83%
INTER TITLE46.13% → 48.60%
-4.79 percentage points
The loss of proven midfield depth lowers their top-four probability to 42.83%.
+2.47 percentage points
Inter remain first and strengthen their position as the model's Serie A favourite.
100,000 matched paths
The seeds and every other verified input are fixed to isolate the confirmed move.
WHY THE MODEL MOVES
Liverpool lose adaptable midfield depth while Inter gain another high-minute option
Jones made 49 appearances last season, including 28 starts, and can cover central midfield and right-back. The scenario uses conservative strength changes rather than assuming he immediately becomes either club's decisive player.
The confirmed move is now a core model input. Liverpool lose Jones's contribution while Inter gain the corresponding league-adjusted strength.
ASSUMPTIONS
What must be true for this result
EVIDENCE
Official confirmation and verified reporting
LIVE MODEL STATUS
Confirmed and included in every relevant forecast
Liverpool now project fourth on 61.9 points with a 7.07% title probability. Inter remain first in Serie A on 74.4 points.