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VERIFIED RESULT · CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Arsenal's win in Naples pushes their top-eight chance close to 80%

The 1-0 final score is locked into the live Champions League table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how Arsenal's away win changes the race for a direct last-16 place.

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FINAL SCORENapoli 0-1 Arsenal
ARSENAL TOP EIGHT64.34% → 79.67%
ARSENAL POSITION3rd → 2nd
NAPOLI TOP EIGHT27.65% → 16.30%
ARSENAL TOP EIGHT

64.34% → 79.67%

The win raises Arsenal's direct last-16 probability by 15.33 percentage points.

ARSENAL PROJECTED POSITION

3rd → 2nd

Arsenal gain one place in the mean league-phase table and move into second.

ARSENAL PROJECTED POINTS

16.2 → 17.8

The result adds 1.6 mean projected points across the remaining league-phase paths.

NAPOLI TOP EIGHT

27.65% → 16.30%

Napoli's direct last-16 probability falls by 11.35 percentage points.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves Napoli v Arsenal unresolved. The after run locks the verified 0-1 final score.100,000 paths · seed 260909
ASSUMPTION 2Liverpool 2-1 Atlético, Paris 6-1 Slovan and Sporting 3-1 Galatasaray are held constant in both forecasts.100,000 paths · seed 260909
ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with every other rating and fixture unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260909
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