VERIFIED RESULT · PREMIER LEAGUE

Palace's five-goal derby win transforms the early survival picture

The 3-2 final score is locked into the live Premier League table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate the impact on both clubs' projected seasons.

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FINAL SCOREFulham 2-3 Palace

PALACE POINTS41.6 → 46.1

PALACE RELEGATION35.22% → 18.43%

FULHAM RELEGATION19.77% → 32.30%

PALACE SURVIVAL SWING

-16.79 pts

Their relegation probability falls by 16.79 percentage points.

PALACE POSITION

19th → 15th

The mean projected finish climbs four places.

FULHAM POINTS

-2.8 points

Fulham fall from 45.4 to 42.6 projected points.

FULHAM SURVIVAL

19.77% → 32.30%

Their relegation probability rises by 12.53 percentage points.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves Fulham v Crystal Palace unresolved. The after run locks the verified 2-3 final score.100,000 paths · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260827 and 100,000 paths, with every other sporting input held constant.100,000 paths · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 3The completed result updates the current table separately from the predicted final standings.100,000 paths · seed 260827

EVIDENCE

Verified final score and live forecast

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