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VERIFIED RESULTS · CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Arsenal go top as seven late results reshape the qualification race

Seven final scores are now locked into the live table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate their effect while holding the earlier Lens-Sporting and Sabah-Slavia results, ratings and every other fixture constant.

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MATERIAL RESULTArsenal 3-0 Lille
LILLE TOP 2447.66% → 23.01%
ARSENAL TOP EIGHT79.36% → 87.77%
VERIFIED FINALS7
LILLE TOP 24

47.66% → 23.01%

The 3-0 defeat removes 24.65 percentage points from Lille’s knockout-stage chance.

ARSENAL TOP EIGHT

79.36% → 87.77%

Arsenal rise from 2nd to 1st and add 0.8 projected points.

BARCELONA TOP EIGHT

56.55% → 76.41%

The 4-1 win in Istanbul adds 19.86 percentage points to direct qualification.

MAN UNITED TOP EIGHT

51.14% → 29.95%

The defeat in Madrid cuts their direct-qualification chance by 21.19 points.

VILLARREAL TOP 24

31.43% → 55.78%

The home win over Napoli adds 24.35 percentage points.

CLUB BRUGGE TOP 24

65.37% → 83.16%

The 4-3 win at Inter lifts Brugge by 17.79 percentage points.

ALL VERIFIED FINALS

Seven scores added to the live table

FINAL SCOREArsenal 3-0 LOSC Lille
FINAL SCOREAtlético Madrid 2-0 Manchester United
FINAL SCOREGalatasaray 1-4 FC Barcelona
FINAL SCOREVillarreal 3-1 Napoli
FINAL SCOREInter 3-4 Club Brugge
FINAL SCORERB Leipzig 1-0 PSV
FINAL SCOREViking 3-3 Bayern Munich
MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, seven completed results

ASSUMPTION 1The before run keeps the earlier Lens-Sporting and Sabah-Slavia finals but leaves these seven later matches unresolved; the after run locks all seven verified scores.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with every other result, rating and fixture held constant.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 3Top eight means direct qualification to the last 16; top 24 includes the knockout play-off places.100,000 paths · seed 260827
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