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VERIFIED RESULT · CHAMPIONSHIP

West Ham's five-goal win sends them top of the projection

The 3-2 final score is locked into the live Championship table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how West Ham's away win changes the title and automatic-promotion races.

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FINAL SCOREBolton 2-3 West Ham
WEST HAM TITLE18.54% → 22.50%
PROJECTED POSITION3rd → 1st
AUTOMATIC PROMOTION33.69% → 39.40%
WEST HAM TITLE

18.54% → 22.50%

The away win raises West Ham’s title probability by 3.96 percentage points.

WEST HAM PROJECTED POSITION

3rd → 1st

West Ham gain two places in the mean table and move to the top of the projection.

WEST HAM PROJECTED POINTS

76.1 → 77.5

The result adds 1.4 mean projected points across the remaining Championship paths.

BOLTON RELEGATION RISK

24.86% → 28.57%

Bolton’s relegation probability rises by 3.72 percentage points after the home defeat.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run treats only Bolton Wanderers v West Ham United as unresolved. The other five completed Championship results from 8 September are identical in both forecasts.100,000 paths · seed 260908
ASSUMPTION 2The after run locks the verified 2-3 final score before simulating the remaining Championship schedule.100,000 paths · seed 260908
ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, so the measured movement isolates this result rather than simulation noise.100,000 paths · seed 260908
ASSUMPTION 4Automatic promotion means finishing first or second. The published play-off band follows the confirmed six-team 2026/27 Championship format.100,000 paths · seed 260908
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