Toulouse win 3-0 — Le Mans' bottom-three risk grows
Le Mans' probability of finishing 16th–18th rises from 35.05% to 42.09%. Toulouse climb from 11th to tenth predicted. Five new finals update five competitions with matched 100,000-path forecasts.
LE MANS 0-3 TOULOUSEVerified final
LE MANS BOTTOM THREE35.05% → 42.09%
NEW VERIFIED FINALS5
MATCHED PATHS / COMPETITION100,000
Seven percentage points of extra survival pressure
The 3-0 defeat raises Le Mans' bottom-three probability by 7.04 percentage points and moves their predicted final position from 15th to 16th. Projected points fall from 35.8 to 34.5. This is a probability of finishing in positions 16–18: 16th is the relegation play-off place, while 17th and 18th are direct relegation. It is not a 42.09% probability of automatic relegation.
Toulouse rise from 43.0 to 44.6 projected points and from 11th to tenth. Their bottom-three risk falls from 7.14% to 4.05%. The comparison changes only this result, holding earlier finals, team ratings and model settings fixed. A final score fixes the points and goal difference already earned; remaining matches are still uncertain.
Elsewhere, Wolves win 2-1 at Burnley: their play-off-place probability rises from 36.53% to 43.34%. Frankfurt beat Cologne 1-0, Frosinone beat Sassuolo 4-2, and Deportivo draw 1-1 with Levante. Every result has its own competition-specific comparison below.
ONE NEW VERIFIED FINAL · ORIGINAL SEED 2772524374
EFL Championship: result and forecast changes
Predicted final standings
Before → after this competition's single new result. Automatic means the top two; play-offs means positions three to six. Bottom three includes the relegation play-off place in Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga.
| Club | Automatic | Play-offs | Bottom three | Projected points | Predicted final place |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham United | 45.32% → 45.01% | 47.47% → 47.66% | 0.01% → 0.01% | 79.1 → 79.1 | 1 → 1 |
| Southampton | 44.32% → 44.21% | 48.18% → 48.11% | 0.01% → 0.01% | 79.0 → 79.0 | 2 → 2 |
| Middlesbrough | 39.86% → 39.30% | 51.14% → 51.59% | 0.01% → 0.01% | 78.6 → 78.5 | 3 → 3 |
| Millwall | 18.99% → 18.75% | 59.25% → 58.60% | 0.08% → 0.07% | 73.9 → 73.9 | 4 → 4 |
| Swansea City | 18.75% → 18.41% | 58.09% → 57.97% | 0.06% → 0.08% | 73.9 → 73.8 | 5 → 5 |
| Birmingham City | 10.17% → 10.21% | 53.74% → 53.52% | 0.27% → 0.24% | 70.7 → 70.7 | 6 → 6 |
| Wrexham | 6.52% → 6.61% | 47.52% → 47.18% | 0.51% → 0.56% | 68.8 → 68.8 | 7 → 7 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3.76% → 5.52% | 36.53% → 43.34% | 1.29% → 0.64% | 66.3 → 68.1 | 9 → 8 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 4.66% → 4.58% | 40.94% → 40.44% | 0.84% → 0.86% | 67.4 → 67.4 | 8 → 9 |
| Norwich City | 2.77% → 2.73% | 33.66% → 33.25% | 1.72% → 1.72% | 65.3 → 65.2 | 10 → 10 |
| Lincoln City | 1.20% → 1.24% | 22.04% → 21.96% | 3.74% → 3.68% | 62.8 → 62.8 | 11 → 11 |
| Sheffield United | 1.07% → 1.12% | 20.47% → 20.03% | 4.19% → 3.93% | 62.0 → 62.0 | 12 → 12 |
| Portsmouth | 0.61% → 0.60% | 14.60% → 14.46% | 7.00% → 6.83% | 60.1 → 60.1 | 13 → 13 |
| Blackburn Rovers | 0.56% → 0.53% | 13.70% → 13.69% | 6.48% → 6.51% | 60.1 → 60.1 | 14 → 14 |
| Derby County | 0.35% → 0.34% | 10.79% → 10.47% | 9.67% → 9.60% | 58.7 → 58.6 | 15 → 15 |
| Bristol City | 0.23% → 0.20% | 7.79% → 7.55% | 12.82% → 12.70% | 57.3 → 57.3 | 17 → 16 |
| Burnley | 0.35% → 0.19% | 11.04% → 7.30% | 9.71% → 12.82% | 58.6 → 57.0 | 16 → 17 |
| Bolton Wanderers | 0.14% → 0.16% | 6.54% → 6.62% | 14.62% → 14.35% | 56.7 → 56.8 | 18 → 18 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 0.12% → 0.09% | 5.13% → 5.10% | 16.77% → 16.52% | 55.8 → 55.8 | 19 → 19 |
| Cardiff City | 0.14% → 0.13% | 5.58% → 5.66% | 17.47% → 16.84% | 55.6 → 55.6 | 20 → 20 |
| Charlton Athletic | 0.08% → 0.05% | 3.57% → 3.33% | 22.96% → 22.80% | 54.4 → 54.4 | 21 → 21 |
| Stoke City | 0.03% → 0.02% | 1.76% → 1.73% | 32.36% → 32.08% | 52.3 → 52.3 | 22 → 22 |
| Watford | 0.00% → 0.00% | 0.39% → 0.38% | 58.20% → 58.04% | 47.8 → 47.8 | 23 → 23 |
| Preston North End | 0.00% → 0.00% | 0.08% → 0.05% | 79.23% → 79.10% | 43.0 → 43.0 | 24 → 24 |
Current standings from completed results
Recorded standings at publication, distinct from the predicted final table above.
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea City | 1 | 10 | 23 | 9 |
| Middlesbrough | 2 | 10 | 21 | 6 |
| West Ham United | 3 | 10 | 19 | 17 |
| Birmingham City | 4 | 10 | 17 | 6 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 5 | 10 | 17 | 6 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 6 | 10 | 17 | 3 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 7 | 10 | 17 | 2 |
| Southampton | 8 | 10 | 16 | 11 |
| Stoke City | 9 | 10 | 16 | 1 |
| Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 10 | 15 | 2 |
| Millwall | 11 | 10 | 14 | 0 |
| Charlton Athletic | 12 | 10 | 14 | -3 |
| Bolton Wanderers | 13 | 10 | 13 | -3 |
| Sheffield United | 14 | 10 | 12 | 0 |
| Portsmouth | 15 | 9 | 11 | -1 |
| Bristol City | 16 | 10 | 11 | -4 |
| Wrexham | 17 | 10 | 11 | -4 |
| Watford | 18 | 10 | 11 | -9 |
| Lincoln City | 19 | 10 | 11 | -10 |
| Cardiff City | 20 | 10 | 10 | 1 |
| Norwich City | 21 | 10 | 9 | -3 |
| Burnley | 22 | 11 | 8 | -5 |
| Derby County | 23 | 10 | 6 | -10 |
| Preston North End | 24 | 10 | 4 | -12 |
ONE NEW VERIFIED FINAL · ORIGINAL SEED 141049782
La Liga: result and forecast changes
Predicted final standings
Before → after this competition's single new result. Primary: top four. Secondary: top six. Bottom three includes the relegation play-off place in Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga.
| Club | Top four | Top six | Bottom three | Projected points | Predicted final place |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona | 99.90% → 99.89% | 100.00% → 100.00% | 0.00% → 0.00% | 86.6 → 86.5 | 1 → 1 |
| Real Madrid | 98.98% → 98.99% | 99.95% → 99.95% | 0.00% → 0.00% | 80.5 → 80.6 | 2 → 2 |
| Atlético de Madrid | 83.25% → 83.38% | 97.19% → 97.16% | 0.00% → 0.00% | 70.8 → 70.8 | 3 → 3 |
| Real Betis | 70.06% → 70.43% | 93.29% → 93.29% | 0.00% → 0.00% | 67.8 → 67.9 | 4 → 4 |
| Villarreal CF | 25.61% → 25.28% | 69.41% → 69.54% | 0.06% → 0.07% | 60.7 → 60.7 | 5 → 5 |
| Athletic Club | 7.59% → 7.48% | 33.93% → 34.20% | 0.96% → 1.00% | 54.6 → 54.6 | 6 → 6 |
| Real Sociedad | 4.71% → 4.71% | 27.63% → 27.76% | 1.16% → 1.09% | 53.6 → 53.5 | 7 → 7 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 3.28% → 3.32% | 19.69% → 20.09% | 2.47% → 2.45% | 51.6 → 51.6 | 8 → 8 |
| Sevilla FC | 2.25% → 2.30% | 16.63% → 16.37% | 2.42% → 2.42% | 51.0 → 50.9 | 9 → 9 |
| Celta | 1.32% → 1.34% | 10.54% → 10.91% | 5.02% → 4.96% | 48.8 → 48.8 | 10 → 10 |
| Valencia CF | 1.21% → 1.19% | 10.28% → 10.27% | 5.24% → 4.98% | 48.7 → 48.7 | 11 → 11 |
| Getafe CF | 0.53% → 0.58% | 5.68% → 5.72% | 9.64% → 9.28% | 46.4 → 46.4 | 12 → 12 |
| Deportivo Alavés | 0.43% → 0.40% | 4.66% → 4.58% | 10.32% → 10.42% | 45.8 → 45.8 | 13 → 13 |
| RC Deportivo | 0.33% → 0.22% | 3.96% → 2.92% | 12.48% → 14.58% | 45.2 → 44.3 | 14 → 14 |
| Elche CF | 0.20% → 0.19% | 2.35% → 2.38% | 18.80% → 18.75% | 43.4 → 43.4 | 15 → 15 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | 0.16% → 0.16% | 2.03% → 2.03% | 19.97% → 19.78% | 43.0 → 43.0 | 16 → 16 |
| Málaga CF | 0.11% → 0.10% | 1.68% → 1.69% | 24.58% → 24.28% | 42.2 → 42.2 | 17 → 17 |
| CA Osasuna | 0.06% → 0.06% | 1.07% → 1.11% | 29.97% → 29.69% | 41.1 → 41.1 | 18 → 18 |
| Levante UD | 0.00% → 0.00% | 0.03% → 0.04% | 73.81% → 73.31% | 33.7 → 33.8 | 19 → 19 |
| R. Racing Club | 0.00% → 0.00% | 0.01% → 0.01% | 83.09% → 82.95% | 31.8 → 31.8 | 20 → 20 |
Current standings from completed results
Recorded standings at publication, distinct from the predicted final table above.
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona | 1 | 8 | 24 | 27 |
| Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 8 | 19 | 10 |
| Real Betis | 3 | 8 | 19 | 5 |
| Real Madrid | 4 | 8 | 18 | 11 |
| Sevilla FC | 5 | 8 | 14 | 1 |
| Real Sociedad | 6 | 8 | 13 | -3 |
| Deportivo Alavés | 7 | 8 | 11 | 4 |
| RC Deportivo | 8 | 9 | 11 | 1 |
| Celta | 9 | 8 | 8 | 2 |
| Athletic Club | 10 | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| Villarreal CF | 11 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | 12 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 13 | 7 | 8 | -5 |
| Getafe CF | 14 | 8 | 8 | -6 |
| R. Racing Club | 15 | 8 | 8 | -10 |
| CA Osasuna | 16 | 8 | 8 | -10 |
| Levante UD | 17 | 8 | 7 | -4 |
| Elche CF | 18 | 8 | 6 | -6 |
| Valencia CF | 19 | 8 | 5 | -9 |
| Málaga CF | 20 | 8 | 4 | -9 |
ONE NEW VERIFIED FINAL · ORIGINAL SEED 2025121691
Bundesliga: result and forecast changes
Predicted final standings
Before → after this competition's single new result. Primary: top four. Secondary: top six. Bottom three includes the relegation play-off place in Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga.
| Club | Top four | Top six | Bottom three | Projected points | Predicted final place |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München | 98.70% → 98.62% | 99.93% → 99.92% | 0.00% → 0.00% | 72.9 → 72.9 | 1 → 1 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 94.82% → 94.88% | 99.54% → 99.58% | 0.00% → 0.00% | 69.3 → 69.3 | 2 → 2 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 81.25% → 81.15% | 97.07% → 96.96% | 0.00% → 0.01% | 63.8 → 63.8 | 3 → 3 |
| RB Leipzig | 57.36% → 56.90% | 89.53% → 89.10% | 0.02% → 0.02% | 59.1 → 59.1 | 4 → 4 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 47.29% → 47.35% | 85.28% → 85.10% | 0.05% → 0.05% | 57.9 → 57.9 | 5 → 5 |
| Sport-Club Freiburg | 8.60% → 8.34% | 39.05% → 38.53% | 1.47% → 1.41% | 49.2 → 49.2 | 6 → 6 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 4.92% → 5.05% | 27.87% → 27.43% | 3.25% → 3.00% | 47.0 → 47.1 | 7 → 7 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.04% → 2.69% | 15.07% → 17.86% | 7.89% → 5.71% | 44.3 → 45.3 | 8 → 8 |
| Hamburger SV | 1.75% → 1.76% | 12.60% → 12.35% | 10.16% → 9.83% | 43.5 → 43.6 | 9 → 9 |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 1.43% → 1.47% | 11.80% → 11.63% | 10.34% → 10.18% | 42.9 → 42.9 | 10 → 10 |
| FC Augsburg | 0.66% → 0.64% | 6.42% → 6.35% | 16.84% → 16.61% | 40.7 → 40.7 | 11 → 11 |
| SV Elversberg | 0.37% → 0.41% | 4.23% → 4.28% | 23.26% → 23.34% | 39.3 → 39.3 | 12 → 12 |
| FC Schalke 04 | 0.20% → 0.18% | 2.65% → 2.55% | 30.95% → 30.76% | 37.7 → 37.7 | 14 → 13 |
| SV Werder Bremen | 0.15% → 0.17% | 2.32% → 2.32% | 32.17% → 31.75% | 37.7 → 37.6 | 13 → 14 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.16% → 0.16% | 2.22% → 2.20% | 35.21% → 34.91% | 37.0 → 37.1 | 15 → 15 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin | 0.16% → 0.12% | 2.01% → 1.86% | 38.06% → 37.44% | 36.9 → 36.9 | 16 → 16 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 0.10% → 0.09% | 1.52% → 1.43% | 40.57% → 40.36% | 36.1 → 36.1 | 17 → 17 |
| 1. FC Köln | 0.05% → 0.02% | 0.87% → 0.55% | 49.74% → 54.62% | 34.8 → 34.0 | 18 → 18 |
Current standings from completed results
Recorded standings at publication, distinct from the predicted final table above.
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport-Club Freiburg | 1 | 5 | 13 | 10 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 5 | 13 | 7 |
| FC Bayern München | 3 | 5 | 11 | 12 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 5 | 10 | 6 |
| RB Leipzig | 5 | 5 | 9 | 10 |
| FC Augsburg | 6 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| SV Werder Bremen | 7 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 6 | 8 | -6 |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| SV Elversberg | 10 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| 1. FC Köln | 11 | 6 | 7 | -3 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 12 | 5 | 6 | -1 |
| Hamburger SV | 13 | 5 | 6 | -10 |
| FC Schalke 04 | 14 | 5 | 5 | -2 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 15 | 5 | 4 | -4 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin | 16 | 5 | 4 | -12 |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 17 | 5 | 3 | -4 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 18 | 5 | 0 | -11 |
ONE NEW VERIFIED FINAL · ORIGINAL SEED 3059446428
Serie A: result and forecast changes
Predicted final standings
Before → after this competition's single new result. Primary: top four. Secondary: top six. Bottom three includes the relegation play-off place in Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga.
| Club | Top four | Top six | Bottom three | Projected points | Predicted final place |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 95.83% → 95.82% | 99.11% → 99.22% | 0.00% → 0.00% | 78.4 → 78.5 | 1 → 1 |
| Roma | 76.66% → 76.59% | 92.41% → 92.21% | 0.00% → 0.00% | 70.8 → 70.9 | 2 → 2 |
| Napoli | 61.04% → 61.09% | 84.24% → 84.18% | 0.01% → 0.00% | 67.7 → 67.7 | 3 → 3 |
| Juventus | 48.07% → 48.18% | 75.73% → 76.05% | 0.01% → 0.01% | 65.4 → 65.4 | 4 → 4 |
| Como | 40.94% → 40.79% | 69.54% → 69.43% | 0.02% → 0.02% | 64.2 → 64.1 | 5 → 5 |
| Lazio | 26.81% → 26.61% | 54.81% → 54.70% | 0.05% → 0.05% | 61.5 → 61.5 | 6 → 6 |
| Milan | 23.61% → 23.56% | 50.53% → 50.31% | 0.07% → 0.09% | 60.7 → 60.7 | 7 → 7 |
| Atalanta | 21.91% → 22.07% | 48.56% → 48.38% | 0.12% → 0.12% | 60.3 → 60.3 | 8 → 8 |
| Bologna | 1.70% → 1.73% | 7.35% → 7.21% | 4.11% → 4.17% | 49.9 → 49.9 | 9 → 9 |
| Frosinone | 0.80% → 1.15% | 3.92% → 5.51% | 7.04% → 4.31% | 47.7 → 49.2 | 11 → 10 |
| Fiorentina | 1.19% → 1.19% | 5.29% → 5.43% | 5.88% → 6.14% | 48.5 → 48.6 | 10 → 11 |
| Cagliari | 0.52% → 0.50% | 2.71% → 2.55% | 9.12% → 9.01% | 46.5 → 46.5 | 12 → 12 |
| Sassuolo | 0.44% → 0.24% | 2.46% → 1.62% | 10.82% → 14.01% | 46.0 → 44.8 | 13 → 13 |
| Torino | 0.20% → 0.20% | 1.28% → 1.22% | 16.86% → 17.08% | 43.9 → 43.9 | 14 → 14 |
| Udinese | 0.17% → 0.18% | 1.17% → 1.10% | 19.38% → 19.21% | 43.4 → 43.4 | 15 → 15 |
| Parma | 0.04% → 0.03% | 0.33% → 0.31% | 35.29% → 34.78% | 39.9 → 40.0 | 16 → 16 |
| Genoa | 0.03% → 0.02% | 0.20% → 0.21% | 40.79% → 40.67% | 39.0 → 39.0 | 17 → 17 |
| Monza | 0.03% → 0.02% | 0.20% → 0.24% | 42.33% → 42.36% | 38.7 → 38.7 | 18 → 18 |
| Venezia | 0.01% → 0.01% | 0.10% → 0.10% | 51.91% → 51.76% | 37.0 → 37.1 | 19 → 19 |
| Lecce | 0.01% → 0.01% | 0.06% → 0.04% | 56.19% → 56.22% | 36.4 → 36.3 | 20 → 20 |
Current standings from completed results
Recorded standings at publication, distinct from the predicted final table above.
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 1 | 6 | 16 | 10 |
| Lazio | 2 | 6 | 16 | 7 |
| Roma | 3 | 6 | 14 | 11 |
| Frosinone | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
| Cagliari | 5 | 6 | 13 | 3 |
| Milan | 6 | 6 | 12 | 6 |
| Juventus | 7 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| Como | 8 | 6 | 11 | 3 |
| Napoli | 9 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| Atalanta | 10 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Sassuolo | 11 | 7 | 8 | -2 |
| Torino | 12 | 6 | 7 | -2 |
| Lecce | 13 | 6 | 6 | -6 |
| Bologna | 14 | 6 | 5 | -2 |
| Udinese | 15 | 6 | 4 | -4 |
| Monza | 16 | 6 | 4 | -6 |
| Genoa | 17 | 6 | 4 | -6 |
| Parma | 18 | 6 | 4 | -6 |
| Fiorentina | 19 | 6 | 4 | -7 |
| Venezia | 20 | 6 | 0 | -11 |
ONE NEW VERIFIED FINAL · ORIGINAL SEED 571318221
Ligue 1: result and forecast changes
Predicted final standings
Before → after this competition's single new result. Primary: top four. Secondary: top six. Bottom three includes the relegation play-off place in Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga.
| Club | Top four | Top six | Bottom three | Projected points | Predicted final place |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | 93.16% → 93.20% | 98.09% → 98.17% | 0.00% → 0.00% | 67.8 → 67.8 | 1 → 1 |
| AS Monaco | 64.12% → 64.37% | 83.74% → 83.89% | 0.01% → 0.01% | 60.8 → 60.9 | 3 → 2 |
| LOSC Lille | 64.12% → 63.87% | 83.70% → 83.31% | 0.00% → 0.00% | 60.8 → 60.8 | 2 → 3 |
| Stade Rennais FC | 43.91% → 43.46% | 69.24% → 68.61% | 0.03% → 0.03% | 57.6 → 57.5 | 4 → 4 |
| RC Lens | 36.14% → 36.12% | 61.88% → 61.52% | 0.05% → 0.04% | 55.8 → 55.8 | 5 → 5 |
| Olympique Lyonnais | 32.61% → 32.47% | 57.62% → 57.35% | 0.11% → 0.08% | 55.2 → 55.2 | 6 → 6 |
| Olympique de Marseille | 26.97% → 26.68% | 51.41% → 51.20% | 0.16% → 0.16% | 54.0 → 54.0 | 7 → 7 |
| Paris FC | 21.03% → 21.15% | 43.53% → 43.31% | 0.19% → 0.23% | 53.0 → 53.1 | 8 → 8 |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace | 12.71% → 12.50% | 30.12% → 29.73% | 0.62% → 0.54% | 50.6 → 50.6 | 9 → 9 |
| Toulouse FC | 1.38% → 2.23% | 5.40% → 7.91% | 7.14% → 4.05% | 43.0 → 44.6 | 11 → 10 |
| AJ Auxerre | 1.50% → 1.54% | 5.65% → 5.43% | 7.05% → 6.93% | 43.3 → 43.3 | 10 → 11 |
| FC Lorient | 1.43% → 1.48% | 5.20% → 5.33% | 6.95% → 6.54% | 43.0 → 43.0 | 12 → 12 |
| OGC Nice | 0.63% → 0.64% | 2.72% → 2.74% | 11.86% → 11.54% | 41.0 → 41.0 | 13 → 13 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 0.18% → 0.18% | 0.95% → 0.93% | 23.85% → 22.99% | 37.6 → 37.6 | 14 → 14 |
| Estac Troyes | 0.04% → 0.06% | 0.31% → 0.33% | 40.22% → 39.43% | 35.2 → 35.1 | 16 → 15 |
| Le Mans FC | 0.07% → 0.04% | 0.41% → 0.21% | 35.05% → 42.09% | 35.8 → 34.5 | 15 → 16 |
| Angers SCO | 0.00% → 0.00% | 0.03% → 0.02% | 70.58% → 69.45% | 30.5 → 30.5 | 17 → 17 |
| Havre Athletic Club | 0.00% → 0.00% | 0.00% → 0.00% | 96.14% → 95.90% | 22.3 → 22.3 | 18 → 18 |
Current standings from completed results
Recorded standings at publication, distinct from the predicted final table above.
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Monaco | 1 | 6 | 14 | 5 |
| Stade Rennais FC | 2 | 7 | 14 | 2 |
| LOSC Lille | 3 | 6 | 13 | 5 |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 4 | 7 | 12 | 3 |
| Olympique Lyonnais | 5 | 6 | 11 | 7 |
| Paris FC | 6 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| Toulouse FC | 7 | 7 | 9 | 1 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| FC Lorient | 9 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| OGC Nice | 10 | 6 | 8 | -2 |
| RC Lens | 11 | 6 | 7 | 1 |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace | 12 | 6 | 7 | -1 |
| Angers SCO | 13 | 6 | 7 | -3 |
| Olympique de Marseille | 14 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| Le Mans FC | 15 | 7 | 6 | -5 |
| AJ Auxerre | 16 | 6 | 6 | -8 |
| Estac Troyes | 17 | 6 | 4 | -9 |
| Havre Athletic Club | 18 | 6 | 2 | -4 |
Verification and assumptions
- Five verified final results update five competitions. Each before-and-after comparison isolates that competition's single new result, with every earlier final fixed.
- Both sides use the same original seed, 100,000 paths, team ratings, schedules and model settings. Seeds previously derived from the snapshot date are now explicitly retained, avoiding unrelated random-stream changes.
- Official sources were checked first. Frankfurt and Frosinone have official result reports; Burnley and Deportivo use independently corroborated final reports where official captures lagged. Toulouse's club capture agreed the score but still showed 93 minutes, so finality comes from ESPN FULL_TIME and Sofascore's final report.
- Current standings from completed results are distinct from predicted final standings. Championship primary means automatic promotion, secondary means play-offs. Other leagues' primary bands are their published Champions League qualification places; danger bands follow each competition's relegation or play-off rules.
- The Premier League season and Golden Boot model inputs are unchanged. Refreshed bookmaker verification changes freshness only; original locked picks, quotes, stakes and terms remain immutable, and no picks are backfilled after kickoff.
HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · verified 16 October 2026. Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Can Le Mans stay clear of the bottom three?
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