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VERIFIED RESULT · LIGUE 1

Angers' 3-1 away win reshapes the survival race

The final score is locked into the live Ligue 1 table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the result changes Angers' survival outlook and Auxerre's projected finish.

FINAL SCOREAuxerre 1-3 Angers
ANGERS POINTS28.7 → 30.9
ANGERS RELEGATION76.16% → 66.90%
AUXERRE RELEGATION5.54% → 9.31%
ANGERS POINTS

+2.2 points

Angers remain projected 17th, now on 30.9 mean points.

ANGERS SURVIVAL

76.16% → 66.90%

Their relegation risk falls by 9.25 percentage points.

AUXERRE POINTS

-1.9 points

Auxerre's mean total falls from 44.7 to 42.8 points.

AUXERRE POSITION

10th → 11th

Their relegation probability rises to 9.31%.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run treats only Auxerre v Angers as unresolved; the after run locks the verified 1-3 scoreline.100,000 paths · seed 260829
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with identical ratings and every other Ligue 1 fixture unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260829
ASSUMPTION 3Relegation probability refers to the published final-table forecast. The completed result also appears separately in the live standings.100,000 paths · seed 260829
EVIDENCE

Verified final score and live competition forecast

AJ Auxerre official match report · 2026-08-29Reuters Ligue 1 results report · 2026-08-29Open the live Ligue 1 standings and forecast