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VERIFIED RESULT · BUNDESLIGA

Freiburg open with four and push their forecast upward

The 4-1 final score is locked into the live Bundesliga table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the result changes both clubs' season outlooks.

FINAL SCOREFreiburg 4-1 Werder
FREIBURG POINTS43.9 → 45.0
FREIBURG RELEGATION9.70% → 6.87%
WERDER RELEGATION49.96% → 54.91%
FREIBURG POINTS

+1.1 points

Freiburg remain ninth in the mean table.

FREIBURG TOP SIX

15.99% → 19.23%

The opening win raises their top-six chance by 3.24 percentage points.

WERDER POINTS

34.6 → 33.7

Werder remain projected 18th.

WERDER RELEGATION

49.96% → 54.91%

The defeat raises their relegation risk by 4.95 percentage points.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Freiburg v Werder unresolved; the after run locks the verified 4-1 scoreline.100,000 paths · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with every other Bundesliga fixture and rating unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260827
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