9.32 percentage points less relegation risk
The away win raises projected points by 2.2 and moves Hartlepool's predicted final place from 21st to 17th.
Hartlepool's away win shifts the survival outlook
The verified final score enters the recorded-results standings. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate this result's effect on predicted final standings.
FINAL SCOREForest Green 2-4 Hartlepool
HARTLEPOOL RELEGATION35.18% → 25.86%
HARTLEPOOL POINTS54.4 → 56.6
FOREST GREEN PLAY-OFFS63.29% → 54.42%
21st → 17th
A four-place move in the matched final-table forecast follows the verified result.
63.28% → 54.42%
The home defeat reduces Forest Green's chance of a play-off place.
71.8 → 69.9
The model now puts Forest Green fifth in predicted final standings, down from fourth.
RECORDED RESULTS TABLE
Completed results and predicted final standings
MATCHED-PATH METHOD
Verified final, isolated result effect
EVIDENCE
Full-time reporting
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