Haaland's price shortens. Our win verdict moves to PASS.

What changed, and why does the verdict move?

This is a market repricing, rather than a new performance forecast. A shorter price pays less for the same estimated chance. Haaland's 61.71% model win probability is unchanged, while the offered return is now just below the model's break-even level. PASS means the current price does not offer a positive model win edge; it does not mean Haaland is unlikely to win.

The earlier 4/6 quote is a historical comparison, not a price currently being offered. The freshly checked Betfair Exchange and Matchbook quotes are 4/7; AK Bets' 8/13 is the best active win price in the captured comparison. Exchange commission and individual account restrictions can reduce the return.

Win odds and each-way terms are separate

The 8/13 best win quote is at AK Bets. It must not be combined with another bookmaker's each-way terms. The separate bet365 capture quotes Haaland at 2/5, with explicitly verified quarter-odds place terms paying three places. Haaland's bet365 each-way verdict remains PASS.

Those terms were checked at 14:03 BST on 15 October and are eligible only until 16:03 BST under the site's two-hour verification policy. After that, the live table automatically uses win-only analysis unless the terms are checked again. Win-price analysis also switches to forecast-only once its own capture is stale. This article preserves the dated comparison; the live Golden Boot table controls current price and terms eligibility.

Matched forecast and assumptions

• 100,000 seeded season and scorer paths; seed 260827.
• Season forecast d4352075; scorer forecast 2e659df2. The publication rerun preserves both forecast hashes and Haaland's 61.71% win probability.
• No results, player-strength inputs or availability assumptions changed for this market comparison.
• Model win EV is probability × decimal odds − 1. The site's price calculator rounds decimal odds to three places: 1.667 previously and 1.615 now. The published percentages use that same calculation.
• The earlier THIN label described a small positive central estimate, not a high-confidence value recommendation. Estimates carry uncertainty and returns are not guaranteed.
• Original track-record quotes and stakes remain immutable; this update does not rewrite any earlier selection.

Dated evidence and current forecasts

Oddschecker Premier League top-goalscorer comparison · captured 15 October 2026 at 14:03 BST. Named active quotes and bet365's per-selection and footer place terms were checked together.

Current Golden Boot forecast and verified prices →

Immutable published track record →

How the football model works →