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VERIFIED RESULT · PREMIER LEAGUE

Brighton's five-goal win transforms the early forecast

Brighton scored five at Coventry through Charalampos Kostoulas, Malick Yalcouyé, Pascal Gross, Lewis Dunk and Yasin Ayari. The final score is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on the predicted final standings.

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FINAL SCORECoventry 0-5 Brighton
PROJECTED PLACE13th → 7th
BRIGHTON POINTS49.6 → 54.0
RELEGATION8.69% → 2.52%
TOP-FOUR SWING

+7.99 percentage points

Brighton's top-four probability rises to 13.73%.

TOP-SIX CHANCE

15.34% → 30.35%

The model moves Brighton to seventh in the predicted final table.

COVENTRY RELEGATION

81.98% → 92.61%

Coventry remain 20th and lose 3.9 projected points.

MODEL CONTROL

100,000 matched paths

The same seed isolates the completed result from simulation noise.

SUNDAY FINALS

Every completed result in this update

PREMIER LEAGUE · FULL TIMECoventry City 0-5 Brighton & Hove AlbionLocked into the current table and remaining season paths
BUNDESLIGA · FULL TIMERB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SVLocked into the current table and remaining season paths
LA LIGA · FULL TIMECelta 1-1 Málaga CFLocked into the current table and remaining season paths
SERIE A · FULL TIMELecce 3-2 MonzaLocked into the current table and remaining season paths
LIGUE 1 · FULL TIMELOSC Lille 2-0 Estac TroyesLocked into the current table and remaining season paths
OTHER MATERIAL MOVES

What changed beyond the Premier League

100,000 MATCHED PATHSRB Leipzig move from fifth to fourth, add 1.0 projected point and raise their top-four chance from 52.93% to 58.21%.Predicted final standings remain separate from current standings
100,000 MATCHED PATHSLecce move from 20th to 19th, add 1.7 projected points and cut relegation risk from 56.23% to 46.93%.Predicted final standings remain separate from current standings
100,000 MATCHED PATHSLille's title probability rises from 18.62% to 20.82% after their 2-0 win.Predicted final standings remain separate from current standings
MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified finals, no hidden strength change

ASSUMPTION 1The before runs leave the five completed Sunday fixtures unresolved. The after runs lock only the verified final scores.HORIZON 6.2 / HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260913
ASSUMPTION 2Both sides of every comparison use seed 260913 and 100,000 paths, with squad strengths and all other sporting inputs unchanged.HORIZON 6.2 / HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260913
ASSUMPTION 3Current standings record completed results separately from the model's predicted final standings.HORIZON 6.2 / HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260913
ASSUMPTION 4The Manchester derby and all later Sunday fixtures remain live or scheduled and are excluded from this update.HORIZON 6.2 / HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260913
EVIDENCE

Final scores and match reporting

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