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VERIFIED RESULT · LA LIGA

Atlético's late surge strengthens their top-four position

Atlético Madrid won 3-0 at Real Sociedad, with all three goals arriving late. The final score is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on the predicted final standings.

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FINAL SCOREReal Sociedad 0-3 Atlético
ATLÉTICO TOP FOUR63.14% → 70.01%
ATLÉTICO POINTS65.5 → 66.9
REAL SOCIEDAD RANK7th → 8th
TOP-FOUR SWING

+6.87 percentage points

Atlético remain third in the predicted final table and strengthen their Champions League position.

PROJECTED POINTS

65.5 → 66.9

The away win adds 1.4 mean projected points across the matched paths.

REAL SOCIEDAD

7th → 8th

Real Sociedad lose 1.2 projected points and move one place lower after the home defeat.

MODEL CONTROL

100,000 matched paths

The same seed isolates this completed result from simulation noise.

OTHER LATE RESULTS

Serie A and Ligue 1 also moved

Sassuolo's 3-2 win over Juventus lifts projected points from 45.6 to 47.6 and predicted position from 13th to 11th.Verified 13 September result · 100,000 matched paths
Juventus fall from fourth to fifth in the predicted table, with top-four probability moving from 55.47% to 47.40%.Verified 13 September result · 100,000 matched paths
Paris Saint-Germain's 1-0 win at Brest raises their Ligue 1 title probability from 38.94% to 42.88%.Verified 13 September result · 100,000 matched paths
MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, no hidden strength change

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves Real Sociedad versus Atlético de Madrid unresolved. The after run locks only the verified 0-3 final score.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260913
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260913 and 100,000 paths, with squad strengths and every other La Liga input unchanged.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260913
ASSUMPTION 3Current standings record the completed result separately from the model's predicted final standings.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260913
ASSUMPTION 4The Serie A and Ligue 1 results are rerun separately with the same matched-path method.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260913
EVIDENCE

Official score and independent reports

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