VERIFIED RESULT · PREMIER LEAGUE

Sunderland's home win transforms their early survival outlook

The 1-0 final score is locked into the live Premier League table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the result changes Sunderland and Fulham's projected finishes.

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FINAL SCORESunderland 1-0 Fulham

SUNDERLAND POINTS38.7 → 41.6

SUNDERLAND RELEGATION49.96% → 35.95%

FULHAM RELEGATION15.65% → 21.95%

SUNDERLAND POINTS

+2.9 points

Sunderland move from 19th to 18th in the mean projected table.

SUNDERLAND SURVIVAL

49.96% → 35.95%

Their relegation risk falls by 14.01 percentage points.

FULHAM POINTS

-2.1 points

Fulham's mean total falls from 47.0 to 44.9 points.

FULHAM POSITION

14th → 16th

Their relegation probability rises to 21.95%.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves Sunderland v Fulham unresolved; the after run locks the verified 1-0 scoreline.100,000 paths · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with every other Premier League input unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260827

ASSUMPTION 3The completed result is also applied to the live table, separately from the predicted final standings.100,000 paths · seed 260827

EVIDENCE

Verified final score and live forecast

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