VERIFIED RESULT · NATIONAL LEAGUE

Boreham Wood strengthen their grip on the title race

The 3-1 home win is locked into the live National League table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the final score changes the leaders' title chance and Kidderminster's survival outlook.

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FINAL SCOREBoreham Wood 3-1 Kidderminster

WOOD TITLE58.49% → 62.19%

WOOD POINTS91.3 → 92.2

HARRIERS RELEGATION31.42% → 33.88%

BOREHAM WOOD TITLE SWING

+3.70 pts

The leaders move above a 62% title chance while remaining first in the mean projection.

BOREHAM WOOD PROJECTED POINTS

91.3 → 92.2

The home win adds 0.9 points to Boreham Wood's mean season projection.

KIDDERMINSTER RELEGATION

31.42% → 33.88%

The defeat raises the Harriers' relegation probability by 2.46 percentage points.

KIDDERMINSTER PROJECTED RANK

20th → 21st

Kidderminster slip one place in the mean final table, from 20th to 21st.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Boreham Wood versus Kidderminster Harriers unresolved. The after run locks the verified 3-1 final score.100,000 paths · seed 260929

ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260929 and 100,000 paths, with every other sporting input unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260929

ASSUMPTION 3The other completed National League results on 29 September are held constant in both runs.100,000 paths · seed 260929

ASSUMPTION 4Completed results update the live National League table separately from the predicted final standings.100,000 paths · seed 260929

EVIDENCE

Official match report and live forecast

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