+1.6 points
City rise from third to second in the mean table and close part of the gap to Arsenal.
Ayyoub Bouaddi joins Manchester City: confirmed model impact
Manchester City and LOSC have officially confirmed Ayyoub Bouaddi's permanent transfer. The verified core model now applies a conservative first-team midfield adjustment across every unresolved City league fixture and reruns the season from the same 100,000-path seed.
CITY POINTS65.5 → 67.1
CITY TITLE13.33% → 17.03%
CITY TOP FOUR59.94% → 66.45%
ARSENAL TITLE50.04% → 48.25%
+3.70 percentage points
The title probability rises to 17.03% in the live forecast.
+6.51 percentage points
Their top-four probability rises from 59.94% to 66.45%.
100,000 matched paths
The seed and every other verified input are fixed to isolate the confirmed move.
WHY THE MODEL MOVES
A conservative midfield-control upgrade
The model values Bouaddi's ball-winning, press resistance and capacity to protect transitions, then applies explicit age, role and Premier League adaptation discounts. It does not assume that the reported fee guarantees performance.
The transfer is now official. These figures are part of the verified live forecast and persisted squad inputs.
ASSUMPTIONS
What must be true for this result
EVIDENCE
Official confirmation and independent reporting
LIVE MODEL STATUS
Confirmed transfer applied to the core model
Manchester City are now projected second on 67.1 points with a 17.03% title probability in the verified live forecast.