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VERIFIED RESULT · LA LIGA

Valencia turn a narrow away win into a European push

Valencia beat Deportivo Alavés 1-0 through Luis Rioja’s 78th-minute goal. The verified final score is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on both clubs’ predicted final standings.

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FINAL SCOREAlavés 0-1 Valencia
VALENCIA TOP SEVEN14.08% → 18.72%
VALENCIA POINTS49.7 → 51.3
ALAVÉS RELEGATION8.04% → 10.68%
VALENCIA TOP-SEVEN SWING

+4.64 percentage points

The away win raises Valencia’s European qualification outlook by more than four percentage points.

VALENCIA PROJECTED POINTS

49.7 → 51.3

The result adds 1.6 mean projected points and moves Valencia from 10th to eighth.

ALAVÉS RELEGATION

8.04% → 10.68%

Alavés lose 1.3 projected points and fall from 12th to 13th in the predicted table.

MODEL CONTROL

100,000 matched paths

The same seed isolates this completed result from simulation noise.

CURRENT TABLE

Valencia earn their first league win

DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS10 points from 6Predicted finish moves from 12th to 13th
VALENCIA CF4 points from 6Predicted finish moves from 10th to eighth
MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, no hidden strength change

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves Deportivo Alavés versus Valencia unresolved. The after run locks only the verified 0-1 final score.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260915
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260915 and 100,000 paths, with squad strengths and every other La Liga input unchanged.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260915
ASSUMPTION 3Current standings record completed results separately from the model's predicted final standings.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260915
EVIDENCE

Official report and final-score cross-check

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