+1.2 points
The opening win lifts Marseille's mean projection to 58.2 points.
Marseille open with four and move above 50% for a top-four finish
The 21 August final score is locked into the live Ligue 1 standings. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate the effect of Marseille's 4-0 win on the European race.
FINAL SCOREMarseille 4-0 Strasbourg
PROJECTED POINTS57.0 → 58.2
TOP FOUR44.76% → 51.86%
TOP SIX67.40% → 73.89%
+7.10 percentage points
Marseille move above 50% to finish in the published top-four band.
6.04% → 7.77%
Their title probability rises by +1.72 percentage points.
8th → 9th
Strasbourg's projected points fall from 51.8 to 50.8.
WHY THE MODEL MOVES
A completed four-goal win replaces every alternative match outcome
The live table awards Marseille all three points and a plus-four goal difference. Because the matched comparison changes only this score, the movement reflects the information in the completed result rather than a bundled rating adjustment.
MATCHED-PATH METHOD
Same seed, same strengths, one newly completed result
EVIDENCE