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VERIFIED RESULT · LA LIGA

Rayo turn a home win into European momentum

Rayo Vallecano beat Espanyol 2-1 to reach seven points from six matches. The verified final score is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on both clubs' predicted final standings.

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FINAL SCORERayo 2-1 Espanyol
RAYO TOP SEVEN18.42% → 22.57%
RAYO POINTS50.8 → 52.0
ESPANYOL RELEGATION14.94% → 17.59%
RAYO TOP-SEVEN SWING

+4.15 percentage points

The home win raises Rayo's European qualification outlook by more than four percentage points.

RAYO PROJECTED POINTS

50.8 → 52.0

The result adds 1.2 mean projected points across matched paths.

ESPANYOL RELEGATION

14.94% → 17.59%

Espanyol fall from 15th to 16th in the predicted table and lose 0.9 projected points.

MODEL CONTROL

100,000 matched paths

The same seed isolates this completed result from simulation noise.

CURRENT TABLE

Both clubs sit on seven points

RAYO VALLECANO7 points from 6Predicted finish remains seventh after the win
RCD ESPANYOL7 points from 6Predicted finish moves from 15th to 16th
MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, no hidden strength change

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves Rayo Vallecano versus Espanyol unresolved. The after run locks only the verified 2-1 final score.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260915
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260915 and 100,000 paths, with squad strengths and every other La Liga input unchanged.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260915
ASSUMPTION 3Current standings record completed results separately from the model's predicted final standings.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260915
EVIDENCE

Official result sources

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