+12.92 percentage points
The away win almost doubles Aston Villa's chance of a top-six finish.
Villa's first league win transforms their outlook
The verified 3-2 final score is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on both clubs' predicted final standings.
FINAL SCORETottenham 2-3 Aston Villa
VILLA FINISH12th → 9th
VILLA TOP SIX13.05% → 25.96%
VILLA POINTS49.1 → 53.2
4.76% → 11.50%
Their top-four chance rises by 6.74 percentage points.
18.52% → 24.98%
Tottenham lose 2.1 projected points and their relegation probability rises by 6.46 percentage points.
0.70% → 1.36%
The result-led team update lifts his Golden Boot probability to 1.36%.
CURRENT TABLE
Villa climb out of the bottom three
MATCHED-PATH METHOD
Verified final, no hidden strength change
EVIDENCE
Official club fixture record and independent match reports
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