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VERIFIED RESULT · PREMIER LEAGUE

Liverpool's narrow win makes a large top-four difference

The verified 1-0 final score is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on both clubs' predicted final standings.

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FINAL SCOREBournemouth 0-1 Liverpool
LIVERPOOL TOP FOUR51.25% → 63.07%
LIVERPOOL POINTS62.5 → 65.0
BOURNEMOUTH RELEGATION6.60% → 10.33%
LIVERPOOL TOP-FOUR SWING

+11.82 percentage points

The away win moves Liverpool from close to a coin flip to a clear model favourite for a top-four place.

LIVERPOOL TITLE

6.19% → 9.56%

Their title probability rises by 3.38 percentage points after the verified result.

BOURNEMOUTH POINTS

51.1 → 48.7

The home defeat removes 2.4 projected points from Bournemouth's matched-path outlook.

BOURNEMOUTH TOP SIX

19.84% → 11.93%

Their top-six probability falls by 7.91 percentage points.

CURRENT TABLE

Liverpool rise to sixth on completed results

LIVERPOOL6th · 9 points · +3 goal differenceTwo wins and three draws from five league matches
BOURNEMOUTH17th · 3 points · -2 goal differenceStill waiting for a first league win
MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, isolated result effect

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Bournemouth against Liverpool unresolved. The after run locks the verified 0-1 final score.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260827 and 100,000 paths, with squad strengths and every other sporting input unchanged.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260827
ASSUMPTION 3Leeds 0-0 Crystal Palace and Manchester City 5-3 Sunderland are held fixed in both runs so this comparison isolates the Liverpool result.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260827
EVIDENCE

Official club record and independent match reporting

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