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CONFIRMED TRANSFERS · VERIFIED 2 SEPTEMBER 2026

Palace’s deadline-day rebuild cuts the modelled relegation risk

Crystal Palace completed a broad first-team refresh. This matched 100,000-path comparison applies five arrivals with conservative role and expected-minutes assumptions while keeping every other input fixed.

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CONFIRMED: all listed moves are in the verified transfer ledger. The model does not assume every arrival starts or plays every minute.

PROJECTED POINTS39.6 → 41.6
RELEGATION45.94% → 36.11%
TOP SIX1.00% → 1.93%
PROJECTED FINISH19th → 19th
POINTS SWING

+2.0 points

The five modeled additions lift Palace to 41.6 mean points.

SURVIVAL SWING

-9.83 pp

Relegation probability falls by 9.83 percentage points in the matched comparison.

MODELED ARRIVALS

5

Quinten Timber, Darío Osorio, Ben Chilwell, Honest Ahanor, Axel Disasi receive explicit minutes-aware weights.

CONTROL

100,000 paths

The same seed, fixtures and completed results isolate this verified squad update.

MINUTES FIRST

Depth matters, but availability and roles still cap the uplift

ASSUMPTION 1Expected minutes are role-based, not automatic 90-minute allocations. Timber receives the largest new share at 68%.Verified input discipline
ASSUMPTION 2Osorio and Ahanor are loan-discounted, while Chilwell is capped at a 46% share to reflect role and availability uncertainty.Verified input discipline
ASSUMPTION 3The before and after forecasts use the same 100,000 paths, seed, completed results and non-Palace inputs.Verified input discipline
ASSUMPTION 4Khalaili and Guessand are verified in the public ledger but remain outside this isolated model step until their first-team minutes become clearer.Verified input discipline
VERIFIED LEDGER

Two more arrivals are recorded, not over-weighted

Anan Khalaili and Evann Guessand are recorded as confirmed. Their first-team model weight remains zero in this isolated step until reliable minutes evidence emerges.

EVIDENCE

Club confirmations and the completed-deals ledger

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