VERIFIED RESULTS · CHAMPIONSHIP

West Brom's win headlines a three-result Championship update

Derby 0-1 West Brom, Norwich 2-1 Birmingham and Charlton 0-0 QPR are locked into the current table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts measure how the completed round changes the promotion race.

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DERBY v WEST BROM0-1

NORWICH v BIRMINGHAM2-1

CHARLTON v QPR0-0

WEST BROM POSITION9th → 7th

WEST BROM PLAY-OFFS

37.16% → 43.06%

Across the completed three-match update, Albion's play-off probability rises by 5.90 percentage points.

WEST BROM PROJECTED POINTS

67.0 → 68.9

The away win helps add 1.9 mean projected points and moves West Brom from ninth to seventh.

NORWICH PROJECTED POINTS

69.5 → 71.0

Norwich's home win adds 1.5 mean projected points and lifts them from sixth to fifth.

DERBY PLAY-OFFS

26.68% → 21.11%

Derby's play-off probability falls by 5.57 percentage points as their mean finish moves from 12th to 14th.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, three completed results

ASSUMPTION 1The before run treats the three Championship fixtures completed on 9 September as unresolved.100,000 paths · seed 260910

ASSUMPTION 2The after run locks all three verified final scores before simulating the remaining Championship schedule.100,000 paths · seed 260910

ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, so the measured movement is not simulation noise.100,000 paths · seed 260910

ASSUMPTION 4Automatic promotion means finishing first or second. The published play-off band covers positions three through eight under the confirmed six-team 2026/27 format.100,000 paths · seed 260910

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