Copenhagen beat Braga 3-0 — and leap into the predicted top eight
Copenhagen's top-eight chance rises from 34.12% to 59.67% after all eight late Conference League finals. Ten late Europa League results and Mansfield's draw with Oxford also enter matched 100,000-path reruns.
COPENHAGEN 3-0 BRAGAVerified final
COPENHAGEN TOP EIGHT34.12% → 59.67%
NEW VERIFIED FINALS19
MATCHED PATHS / COMPETITION100,000
The largest late-batch move is Copenhagen
Copenhagen move from 12th to fifth in the predicted final league-phase standings. Projected points rise from 10.0 to 12.0. Braga fall from second to seventh: top-eight probability drops from 74.88% to 52.68%, with projected points falling from 13.1 to 11.4.
The comparison includes all eight late Conference League results, while keeping the ten early finals fixed. It is a combined batch effect, not an isolated causal estimate of Copenhagen–Braga. A 59.67% chance still leaves substantial uncertainty.
Copenhagen's official match report confirms the 3-0 score ↗. Brighton's official site also confirms their 4-0 win over Kauno Žalgiris; their top-eight probability rises from 33.82% to 42.20% in the same late-batch comparison.
Europa League and League One
Olympiacos win 1-0 at Marseille and rise from 46.33% to 64.65% for a top-eight finish after the ten late Europa League finals. Beşiktaş's 3-2 win at Hoffenheim accompanies a rise from 29.37% to 45.33%. These are whole-batch comparisons, with the eight early Europa League finals fixed.
Mansfield draw 1-1 with Oxford. Mansfield stay fifth predicted, but projected points dip from 71.7 to 71.1 and automatic-promotion probability falls from 14.37% to 12.50%. The Premier League core forecast is unchanged.
10 NEW VERIFIED FINALS · SEED 2740071368
UEFA Europa League: results and forecast changes
Predicted final standings
Before → after all 10 newly verified results in this competition. Primary: top eight, direct progression. Secondary: top 24, including knockout-phase play-offs.
| Club | Top eight | Top 24 | Projected points | Predicted final place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 90.88% → 96.07% | 99.91% → 99.99% | 19.0 → 20.1 | 1 → 1 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 75.81% → 83.51% | 99.44% → 99.91% | 17.2 → 18.1 | 3 → 2 |
| Juventus | 74.87% → 84.23% | 99.41% → 99.93% | 16.9 → 18.1 | 4 → 3 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 82.84% → 80.51% | 99.85% → 99.87% | 17.7 → 17.7 | 2 → 4 |
| Sunderland | 68.70% → 65.57% | 99.44% → 99.55% | 16.7 → 16.7 | 5 → 5 |
| Olympiacos | 46.33% → 64.65% | 96.51% → 99.47% | 14.8 → 16.6 | 7 → 6 |
| Olympique Lyonnais | 55.16% → 51.69% | 98.66% → 98.82% | 15.6 → 15.6 | 6 → 7 |
| Stade Rennais FC | 45.10% → 47.78% | 96.40% → 98.45% | 14.5 → 15.1 | 8 → 8 |
| Beşiktaş | 29.37% → 45.33% | 92.16% → 98.69% | 13.2 → 15.0 | 11 → 9 |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | 42.54% → 39.71% | 97.18% → 97.57% | 14.3 → 14.3 | 9 → 10 |
| AC Milan | 35.38% → 32.16% | 95.66% → 96.10% | 13.6 → 13.6 | 10 → 11 |
| Ferencváros | 19.07% → 25.45% | 86.54% → 95.62% | 12.3 → 13.6 | 13 → 12 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 18.54% → 16.02% | 88.11% → 89.56% | 12.3 → 12.3 | 12 → 13 |
| Crystal Palace | 18.38% → 16.29% | 86.14% → 87.47% | 11.9 → 11.9 | 14 → 14 |
| Salzburg | 10.29% → 8.63% | 77.99% → 79.63% | 11.4 → 11.4 | 17 → 15 |
| Celtic | 17.81% → 7.82% | 84.09% → 79.24% | 11.9 → 11.0 | 15 → 16 |
| Real Sociedad | 6.63% → 5.59% | 72.31% → 74.50% | 10.3 → 10.3 | 19 → 17 |
| Omonia | 4.48% → 3.65% | 68.94% → 71.94% | 10.3 → 10.3 | 20 → 18 |
| Olympique de Marseille | 15.88% → 4.32% | 82.66% → 71.88% | 11.8 → 10.2 | 16 → 19 |
| Sparta Prague | 4.87% → 4.25% | 62.86% → 65.88% | 9.7 → 9.7 | 22 → 20 |
| GNK Dinamo | 1.36% → 2.68% | 36.88% → 60.84% | 7.8 → 9.6 | 29 → 21 |
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 2.28% → 3.44% | 42.97% → 62.42% | 8.1 → 9.5 | 27 → 22 |
| Sturm Graz | 5.88% → 2.30% | 64.04% → 58.22% | 9.9 → 9.3 | 21 → 23 |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 10.06% → 2.54% | 71.07% → 57.96% | 10.6 → 9.0 | 18 → 24 |
| OFI Crete | 2.96% → 1.41% | 53.22% → 50.97% | 9.2 → 8.7 | 24 → 25 |
| Anderlecht | 5.58% → 1.23% | 59.67% → 45.17% | 9.5 → 8.0 | 23 → 26 |
| Torreense | 0.95% → 0.71% | 34.86% → 37.73% | 7.8 → 7.9 | 30 → 27 |
| Celta de Vigo | 2.61% → 0.69% | 47.08% → 38.63% | 8.5 → 7.5 | 25 → 28 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 1.90% → 0.36% | 42.47% → 30.73% | 8.3 → 7.1 | 26 → 29 |
| Lillestrøm | 0.44% → 0.37% | 25.83% → 28.10% | 6.8 → 6.8 | 32 → 30 |
| Viktoria Plzeň | 1.18% → 0.22% | 35.77% → 25.95% | 7.8 → 6.7 | 28 → 31 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 0.79% → 0.21% | 28.10% → 22.29% | 7.2 → 6.6 | 31 → 32 |
| Lech Poznań | 0.22% → 0.16% | 19.35% → 21.24% | 6.5 → 6.5 | 33 → 33 |
| Levski Sofia | 0.50% → 0.17% | 23.81% → 22.03% | 6.5 → 6.4 | 34 → 34 |
| Celje | 0.29% → 0.20% | 19.47% → 21.42% | 6.2 → 6.3 | 35 → 35 |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 0.07% → 0.06% | 11.15% → 12.23% | 5.4 → 5.4 | 36 → 36 |
Current standings from completed results
Recorded standings at publication, distinct from the predicted final table above.
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Benfica | 3 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Beşiktaş | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Omonia | 6 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Ferencváros | 7 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Olympique Lyonnais | 8 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Olympiacos | 9 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Sparta Prague | 11 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | 12 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Stade Rennais FC | 13 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| GNK Dinamo | 14 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 15 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| AC Milan | 16 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| OFI Crete | 18 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Torreense | 19 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 20 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Salzburg | 21 | 2 | 3 | -3 |
| Lillestrøm | 22 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Real Sociedad | 23 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 24 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Levski Sofia | 25 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Sturm Graz | 26 | 2 | 1 | -3 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 27 | 2 | 1 | -5 |
| Anderlecht | 28 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| Celta de Vigo | 29 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 30 | 2 | 0 | -3 |
| Olympique de Marseille | 31 | 2 | 0 | -4 |
| Viktoria Plzeň | 32 | 2 | 0 | -4 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 33 | 2 | 0 | -5 |
| Celtic | 34 | 2 | 0 | -5 |
| Celje | 35 | 2 | 0 | -5 |
| Lech Poznań | 36 | 2 | 0 | -8 |
8 NEW VERIFIED FINALS · SEED 2958288531
UEFA Conference League: results and forecast changes
Predicted final standings
Before → after all 8 newly verified results in this competition. Primary: top eight, direct progression. Secondary: top 24, including knockout-phase play-offs.
| Club | Top eight | Top 24 | Projected points | Predicted final place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 79.15% → 86.13% | 99.24% → 99.75% | 13.3 → 13.9 | 1 → 1 |
| Twente | 74.11% → 79.38% | 98.60% → 99.41% | 13.0 → 13.6 | 3 → 2 |
| Monaco | 65.81% → 64.65% | 98.57% → 98.56% | 12.5 → 12.4 | 4 → 3 |
| Trabzonspor | 61.77% → 61.32% | 97.76% → 97.78% | 12.1 → 12.1 | 5 → 4 |
| Copenhagen | 34.12% → 59.67% | 88.05% → 97.57% | 10.0 → 12.0 | 12 → 5 |
| Panathinaikos | 52.61% → 51.31% | 96.14% → 96.22% | 11.6 → 11.6 | 6 → 6 |
| Sporting Braga | 74.88% → 52.68% | 98.81% → 96.71% | 13.1 → 11.4 | 2 → 7 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 33.82% → 42.20% | 89.47% → 95.11% | 10.0 → 10.7 | 11 → 8 |
| Gent | 30.49% → 29.71% | 89.13% → 88.99% | 10.1 → 10.1 | 8 → 9 |
| Hajduk Split | 30.97% → 29.81% | 88.71% → 88.83% | 10.1 → 10.1 | 9 → 10 |
| Getafe | 31.73% → 30.46% | 91.00% → 90.91% | 10.0 → 10.0 | 10 → 11 |
| Lugano | 28.23% → 27.30% | 88.84% → 88.82% | 9.9 → 9.9 | 13 → 12 |
| Sport-Club Freiburg | 18.96% → 23.23% | 77.18% → 86.05% | 8.6 → 9.5 | 15 → 13 |
| Hearts | 38.27% → 24.18% | 90.35% → 85.98% | 10.4 → 9.4 | 7 → 14 |
| Ajax | 26.00% → 25.04% | 86.40% → 86.50% | 9.3 → 9.3 | 14 → 15 |
| Brann | 14.78% → 19.84% | 71.23% → 82.33% | 8.2 → 9.2 | 17 → 16 |
| Midtjylland | 17.47% → 16.89% | 78.26% → 78.40% | 8.6 → 8.6 | 16 → 17 |
| Sint-Truidense | 9.78% → 14.40% | 60.49% → 75.78% | 7.3 → 8.5 | 21 → 18 |
| Crvena Zvezda | 11.64% → 11.36% | 70.84% → 70.59% | 7.8 → 7.8 | 18 → 19 |
| Nordsjælland | 10.58% → 9.47% | 63.84% → 68.85% | 7.5 → 7.8 | 20 → 20 |
| Mjällby | 8.18% → 7.87% | 65.70% → 65.47% | 7.8 → 7.8 | 19 → 21 |
| Riga | 4.66% → 4.39% | 52.79% → 52.54% | 6.7 → 6.7 | 23 → 22 |
| Egnatia | 3.59% → 3.42% | 51.62% → 51.26% | 6.6 → 6.6 | 24 → 23 |
| Universitatea Craiova | 4.25% → 4.09% | 50.62% → 50.65% | 6.5 → 6.5 | 26 → 24 |
| Pafos | 6.67% → 3.81% | 55.09% → 48.98% | 6.9 → 6.4 | 22 → 25 |
| Kairat Almaty | 2.23% → 2.00% | 44.85% → 44.79% | 6.2 → 6.2 | 27 → 26 |
| Aarhus | 2.61% → 2.53% | 41.16% → 41.15% | 5.8 → 5.8 | 29 → 27 |
| Jablonec | 5.33% → 2.61% | 48.35% → 41.29% | 6.5 → 5.8 | 25 → 28 |
| CSKA Sofia | 2.19% → 2.05% | 37.25% → 36.72% | 5.5 → 5.5 | 32 → 29 |
| Borac | 1.74% → 1.63% | 35.67% → 35.76% | 5.4 → 5.4 | 33 → 30 |
| Thun | 3.07% → 1.70% | 37.48% → 33.02% | 5.7 → 5.2 | 30 → 31 |
| Iberia Tbilisi | 4.15% → 1.35% | 43.26% → 30.44% | 6.1 → 5.2 | 28 → 32 |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 2.89% → 1.41% | 36.77% → 28.31% | 5.6 → 5.2 | 31 → 33 |
| KuPS Kuopio | 1.06% → 1.05% | 27.34% → 27.21% | 4.9 → 4.9 | 35 → 34 |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 0.60% → 0.59% | 21.27% → 20.90% | 4.5 → 4.5 | 36 → 35 |
| Lincoln Red Imps | 1.61% → 0.49% | 27.85% → 18.37% | 5.0 → 4.1 | 34 → 36 |
Current standings from completed results
Recorded standings at publication, distinct from the predicted final table above.
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Trabzonspor | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Atalanta | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Mjällby | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Sint-Truidense | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Lugano | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Sport-Club Freiburg | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Brann | 9 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Hajduk Split | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Monaco | 11 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Panathinaikos | 12 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Gent | 13 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Twente | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Egnatia | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Getafe | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Hearts | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kairat Almaty | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Midtjylland | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Nordsjælland | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Riga | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Universitatea Craiova | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Crvena Zvezda | 23 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Jablonec | 24 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Ajax | 25 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Borac | 26 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| CSKA Sofia | 27 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Lincoln Red Imps | 28 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Aarhus | 29 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Thun | 30 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| KuPS Kuopio | 31 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| Pafos | 32 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| Iberia Tbilisi | 33 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 34 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| Sporting Braga | 35 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 36 | 1 | 0 | -4 |
1 NEW VERIFIED FINALS · SEED 456981279
EFL League One: results and forecast changes
Predicted final standings
Before → after all 1 newly verified results in this competition. Primary: automatic promotion. Secondary: play-off places.
| Club | Automatic promotion | Play-offs | Projected points | Predicted final place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth Argyle | 55.49% → 56.06% | 34.04% → 33.59% | 80.9 → 80.9 | 1 → 1 |
| Stockport County | 47.56% → 48.24% | 37.68% → 37.37% | 79.2 → 79.2 | 2 → 2 |
| Luton Town | 26.29% → 26.51% | 43.27% → 43.26% | 75.0 → 75.0 | 3 → 3 |
| Oxford United | 17.19% → 17.00% | 39.96% → 40.17% | 72.6 → 72.5 | 4 → 4 |
| Mansfield Town | 14.37% → 12.50% | 38.39% → 37.37% | 71.7 → 71.1 | 5 → 5 |
| Bradford City | 11.24% → 11.49% | 36.38% → 36.53% | 70.8 → 70.9 | 6 → 6 |
| Huddersfield Town | 7.62% → 7.75% | 30.41% → 30.29% | 68.7 → 68.7 | 7 → 7 |
| Leicester City | 3.75% → 3.84% | 20.64% → 20.97% | 65.7 → 65.7 | 8 → 8 |
| Stevenage | 3.87% → 3.87% | 20.82% → 21.03% | 65.7 → 65.7 | 9 → 9 |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 2.79% → 2.86% | 17.09% → 17.62% | 64.5 → 64.5 | 10 → 10 |
| Blackpool | 2.71% → 2.67% | 17.21% → 17.27% | 64.2 → 64.2 | 11 → 11 |
| Wycombe Wanderers | 2.03% → 2.12% | 15.09% → 15.17% | 63.9 → 63.8 | 12 → 12 |
| Reading | 2.09% → 2.17% | 15.22% → 15.16% | 63.5 → 63.5 | 13 → 13 |
| Cambridge United | 1.20% → 1.18% | 9.98% → 10.24% | 61.8 → 61.8 | 14 → 14 |
| MK Dons | 0.49% → 0.49% | 5.20% → 5.13% | 58.3 → 58.3 | 15 → 15 |
| Doncaster Rovers | 0.38% → 0.39% | 4.74% → 4.73% | 57.8 → 57.8 | 16 → 16 |
| Bromley | 0.23% → 0.21% | 3.01% → 3.01% | 56.3 → 56.4 | 17 → 17 |
| Leyton Orient | 0.19% → 0.19% | 2.98% → 3.04% | 56.3 → 56.3 | 18 → 18 |
| Barnsley | 0.19% → 0.20% | 2.79% → 2.75% | 55.9 → 55.9 | 19 → 19 |
| Notts County | 0.17% → 0.15% | 2.22% → 2.24% | 55.0 → 55.0 | 20 → 20 |
| Burton Albion | 0.05% → 0.04% | 1.08% → 1.11% | 53.2 → 53.2 | 21 → 21 |
| Wigan Athletic | 0.06% → 0.06% | 1.03% → 1.16% | 52.6 → 52.6 | 22 → 22 |
| Peterborough United | 0.02% → 0.01% | 0.47% → 0.47% | 50.4 → 50.3 | 23 → 23 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 0.02% → 0.01% | 0.30% → 0.32% | 49.8 → 49.7 | 24 → 24 |
Current standings from completed results
Recorded standings at publication, distinct from the predicted final table above.
| Club | Current place | Played | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth Argyle | 1 | 10 | 19 | 6 |
| Bradford City | 2 | 9 | 17 | 3 |
| Stockport County | 3 | 9 | 16 | 9 |
| Huddersfield Town | 4 | 9 | 16 | 7 |
| Cambridge United | 5 | 9 | 16 | 3 |
| Reading | 6 | 9 | 15 | 11 |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 7 | 8 | 15 | 7 |
| Oxford United | 8 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
| Stevenage | 9 | 8 | 12 | 4 |
| Burton Albion | 10 | 10 | 12 | -1 |
| Mansfield Town | 11 | 9 | 12 | -2 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 12 | 9 | 12 | -3 |
| Leyton Orient | 13 | 9 | 11 | 2 |
| Luton Town | 14 | 8 | 11 | 1 |
| Wycombe Wanderers | 15 | 9 | 10 | -6 |
| Doncaster Rovers | 16 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| Leicester City | 17 | 8 | 9 | -4 |
| Blackpool | 18 | 8 | 8 | -1 |
| Barnsley | 19 | 8 | 8 | -7 |
| Peterborough United | 20 | 9 | 8 | -7 |
| Bromley | 21 | 8 | 8 | -11 |
| Notts County | 22 | 8 | 7 | -3 |
| MK Dons | 23 | 8 | 6 | -6 |
| Wigan Athletic | 24 | 8 | 4 | -8 |
Verification and matched-path assumptions
- Nineteen newly verified full-time results are imported: ten Europa League, eight Conference League and Mansfield–Oxford in League One.
- Before and after use the same original seed, 100,000 paths, ratings, schedule and all earlier completed results. Each comparison measures the combined late-result batch in that competition, not one match in isolation.
- Official sources are checked first. Lagging UEFA LIVE captures are not treated as final. ESPN full-time flags and an independent final-score report agree on every imported result; Brighton also confirm their own 4-0 final.
- Current standings from completed matches are separate from predicted final standings. Top eight means direct progression; top 24 includes UEFA knockout-phase play-offs. League One primary means automatic promotion.
- Premier League core forecasts remain unchanged. No pick is backfilled after kickoff and no original locked quote or stake is overwritten.
Official competition and club sources were checked first. UEFA's match API still returned LIVE scores without final timestamps for the late fixtures, so those captures were not used as final evidence. The imported scores have ESPN full-time status and an independent final-score cross-check; the lead Copenhagen result is also confirmed by the club.
Brighton official result ↗ · Independent final-score corroboration ↗ · Earlier European result analysis →
HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · verified 15 October 2026 at 22:18 BST. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Can Copenhagen turn this start into a top-eight finish?
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