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VERIFIED RESULT · SERIE A

Cagliari's opening win transforms the survival picture

The final 0-1 score is locked into the live table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how the result changes Cagliari's projected points, finishing place and relegation probability.

FINAL SCOREParma 0-1 Cagliari
CAGLIARI POINTS39.5 → 41.3
RELEGATION42.61% → 32.32%
PREDICTED PLACE19th → 16th
POINTS SWING

+1.8 points

Cagliari are now projected on 41.3 mean points.

RELEGATION

42.60% → 32.32%

The relegation probability falls by 10.28 percentage points.

PREDICTED PLACE

19th → 16th

The matched forecast moves Cagliari three places clear of the bottom three.

PARMA

42.6 → 41.0 points

Parma's relegation probability rises from 27.16% to 34.34%.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one newly completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run treats only Parma v Cagliari as unresolved; the after run locks the verified 0-1 scoreline.100,000 paths · seed 260823
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with identical ratings and every other Serie A fixture unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260823
ASSUMPTION 3The live table records the completed result separately from the predicted final table.100,000 paths · seed 260823
EVIDENCE

Verified final score and live competition forecast

ANSA Serie A opening-day report · 2026-08-22Open the live Serie A forecast