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VERIFIED RESULT · PREMIER LEAGUE

Ipswich win 3-2 at Palace and transform the early survival picture

Zian Flemming's late winner settled a five-goal match at Selhurst Park. The result is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts measure the effect of the completed afternoon slate on the predicted final standings.

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FINAL SCOREPalace 2-3 Ipswich
IPSWICH RELEGATION36.66% → 21.29%
IPSWICH POINTS42.3 → 46.5
PROJECTED PLACE19th → 14th
SURVIVAL SWING

-15.37 percentage points

Ipswich move from the relegation places to 14th in the predicted final table.

IPSWICH POINTS

+4.2 points

The away win lifts their mean projection to 46.5.

PALACE RELEGATION

18.79% → 32.34%

Palace fall from 14th to 19th in the projected table.

MODEL CONTROL

100,000 matched paths

The same seed is used before and after the verified afternoon results.

ALL FIVE RESULTS

Every completed Premier League score in the update

FULL TIMEAston Villa 1-2 Nottingham ForestLocked into the current table and remaining season paths
FULL TIMEBournemouth 2-2 BrentfordLocked into the current table and remaining season paths
FULL TIMEChelsea 2-2 Hull CityLocked into the current table and remaining season paths
FULL TIMECrystal Palace 2-3 Ipswich TownLocked into the current table and remaining season paths
FULL TIMELiverpool 0-0 FulhamLocked into the current table and remaining season paths
MATCHED-PATH METHOD

One verified result slate, no hidden strength change

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves the five completed 3pm Premier League fixtures unresolved.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260912
ASSUMPTION 2The after run locks all five verified final scores before simulating the remaining schedule.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260912
ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use seed 260912 and 100,000 paths, so the movement isolates the completed results rather than simulation noise.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260912
ASSUMPTION 4Current standings and predicted final standings remain separate throughout the update.HORIZON 6.2 · seed 260912
EVIDENCE

Final scores and match reporting

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