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VERIFIED RESULT · LA LIGA

Real Madrid's late winner sharpens the title race

Real Madrid beat Elche 3-2 through Carlos Espí's stoppage-time winner. The verified final score is locked into the current table, while matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate its effect on both clubs' predicted final standings.

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FINAL SCOREElche 2-3 Real Madrid
REAL MADRID TITLE30.71% → 34.54%
REAL MADRID POINTS80.0 → 81.0
ELCHE RELEGATION25.79% → 29.23%
REAL MADRID TITLE SWING

+3.83 percentage points

The late away win raises Real Madrid's championship outlook by almost four percentage points.

REAL MADRID PROJECTED POINTS

80.0 → 81.0

The result adds 1.0 mean projected point while Real Madrid remain second in the predicted table.

ELCHE RELEGATION

25.79% → 29.23%

Elche lose 0.8 projected points and move from 17th to 18th in the predicted table.

MODEL CONTROL

100,000 matched paths

The same seed isolates this completed result from simulation noise.

CURRENT TABLE

Real Madrid reach 15 points

ELCHE CF2 points from 6Predicted finish moves from 17th to 18th
REAL MADRID15 points from 6Title probability rises to 34.54%
MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, no hidden strength change

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves Elche CF versus Real Madrid unresolved. The after run locks only the verified 2-3 final score.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260915
ASSUMPTION 2Both forecasts use seed 260915 and 100,000 paths, with squad strengths and every other La Liga input unchanged.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260915
ASSUMPTION 3Current standings record completed results separately from the model's predicted final standings.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 260915
EVIDENCE

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