VERIFIED RESULT · SERIE A

Napoli strengthen their top-four route

The verified final score enters the recorded-results standings. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate this result's effect on predicted final standings.

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FINAL SCORENapoli 3-0 Frosinone

NAPOLI TOP FOUR55.93% → 60.89%

NAPOLI POINTS66.8 → 67.7

FROSINONE RELEGATION6.34% → 7.56%

NAPOLI TOP-FOUR SWING

+4.96 percentage points

The home win pushes Napoli above 60% for a Champions League place.

NAPOLI TOP SIX

81.67% → 84.92%

Napoli remain third in predicted final standings.

FROSINONE SURVIVAL PRESSURE

6.34% → 7.56%

The away defeat removes 0.7 projected points.

RECORDED TABLE

Napoli 6th · Frosinone 9th

Both clubs have completed six verified league matches.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Verified final, isolated result effect

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves only Napoli versus Frosinone unresolved; the after run locks the official 3-0 final.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 20261010

ASSUMPTION 2Both runs use seed 20261010 and 100,000 matched paths. Every other recorded result and club input is unchanged.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 20261010

ASSUMPTION 3The recorded table uses completed results; projected final standings remain model estimates, not guarantees.HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · seed 20261010

EVIDENCE

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