Espanyol jump two predicted places after winning at Villarreal

Espanyol’s relegation risk falls 10.56 points

The away win lowers Espanyol’s modeled La Liga relegation probability from 30.50% to 19.94%. Their projected total rises from 40.3 to 42.7 points and their predicted final position improves from 18th to 16th.

The two-place move, 2.4-point projected-points gain and 10.56-point survival swing all clear the site’s material-result thresholds. In the completed-result table, Espanyol are 12th on 11 points from 11 matches.

Official La Liga match centre ↗ · Independent results page ↗

Villarreal’s European outlook

Villarreal remain fifth in the predicted final table, but projected points fall from 61.2 to 59.0. Their modeled top-four probability falls from 26.82% to 18.52%, while top-six probability moves from 72.92% to 62.79%.

Open current and predicted La Liga standings

Verification method

• Every final was accepted only after two independent sources corroborated the score, with official competition or club sources preferred.
• Before and after runs use the identical deterministic seed, 100,000 paths, ratings, schedule and model settings; only results newly added after the 20:10 GMT publication change.
• A duplicated Rennes 2-2 PSG round-one row was repaired as the missing provisional round-23 PSG v Rennes reverse fixture before both matched runs; this restores one home and one away meeting for every Ligue 1 pairing.
• Current standings from completed results remain separate from predicted final standings.
• The 20:10 GMT Le Havre 1-5 PSG publication remains in both sides of this refresh baseline; the late finals are the only newly varied inputs.

HORIZON GLOBAL 3.0 · 100,000 matched paths per affected competition · verified 30 October 2026. Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees.