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VERIFIED RESULT · CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

AEK's 1-0 opener creates an immediate top-eight swing

The final score is locked into the live Champions League table. Matched 100,000-path forecasts isolate how AEK Athens' home win changes the race for a direct last-16 place.

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FINAL SCOREAEK Athens 1-0 LASK
AEK TOP EIGHT26.30% → 32.85%
AEK POSITION13th → 9th
LASK TOP 2428.61% → 21.99%
AEK TOP EIGHT

26.30% → 32.85%

The opening win raises AEK's direct last-16 probability by 6.55 percentage points.

AEK PROJECTED POSITION

13th → 9th

AEK gain four places in the mean league-phase table and move to the edge of the top eight.

AEK PROJECTED POINTS

12.7 → 13.6

The result adds 0.9 mean projected points across the remaining league-phase paths.

LASK TOP 24

28.61% → 21.99%

LASK's play-off qualification probability falls by 6.62 percentage points.

MATCHED-PATH METHOD

Same seed, one completed result

ASSUMPTION 1The before run leaves AEK Athens v LASK unresolved; the after run locks the verified 1-0 final score.100,000 paths · seed 260908
ASSUMPTION 2Aston Villa's earlier 3-2 win at Club Brugge is held constant in both forecasts.100,000 paths · seed 260908
ASSUMPTION 3Both forecasts use the same seed and 100,000 paths, with every other rating and fixture unchanged.100,000 paths · seed 260908
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