Probabilities, not picks
Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.
Football predictions on Saturday, 5 September 2026
56 verified-schedule fixtures are listed across 8 competitions on Saturday, 5 September 2026. The highest single 1X2 probability is Manchester City win at 76.1%; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
VERIFIED FIXTURES56
COMPETITIONS8
CONFIRMED 3PM5
MODEL PATHS100,000
CONFIRMED SATURDAY 3PM KICK-OFFS
The 3pm probability board
Only fixtures with an explicitly confirmed 15:00 UK kick-off are included here. Provisional EFL times remain in the competition sections below and are clearly labelled.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Brentford vs SunderlandPremier League | 61.8% | 21.9% | 16.4% | 1-110.3% | 2.09-1.00 | Home61.8% | 1.62 · 4.58 · 6.11 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds UnitedPremier League | 47.4% | 26.4% | 26.2% | 1-112.5% | 1.63-1.16 | Home47.4% | 2.11 · 3.79 · 3.81 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Fulham vs Crystal PalacePremier League | 50.7% | 24.1% | 25.1% | 1-111.0% | 1.89-1.28 | Home50.7% | 1.97 · 4.15 · 3.98 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Manchester City vs Coventry CityPremier League | 76.1% | 15.4% | 8.5% | 2-010.8% | 2.70-0.83 | Home76.1% | 1.31 · 6.50 · 11.80 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham HotspurPremier League | 49.6% | 24.6% | 25.8% | 1-111.4% | 1.82-1.27 | Home49.6% | 2.02 · 4.06 · 3.88 |
EVERY SUPPORTED COMPETITION
Saturday, 5 September 2026 football predictions
Probabilities are generated independently of bookmaker prices. Fair odds are the decimal inverse of the model probability and do not include a safety margin. 40 listed kick-off times are provisional.
EFL Championship
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Lincoln City vs SouthamptonEFL Championship | 33.7% | 26.1% | 40.3% | 1-112.4% | 1.25-1.39 | Away40.3% | 2.97 · 3.84 · 2.48 |
| 12:30time provisional | Preston North End vs Blackburn RoversEFL Championship | 37.6% | 27.6% | 34.8% | 1-113.0% | 1.23-1.18 | Home37.6% | 2.66 · 3.63 · 2.87 |
| 12:30time provisional | Stoke City vs Charlton AthleticEFL Championship | 38.1% | 27.5% | 34.3% | 1-113.0% | 1.24-1.17 | Home38.1% | 2.62 · 3.63 · 2.91 |
| 15:00time provisional | Burnley vs Bristol CityEFL Championship | 46.4% | 26.2% | 27.4% | 1-112.4% | 1.46-1.06 | Home46.4% | 2.16 · 3.82 · 3.65 |
| 15:00time provisional | Millwall vs Bolton WanderersEFL Championship | 58.0% | 23.5% | 18.5% | 1-012.9% | 1.74-0.87 | Home58.0% | 1.73 · 4.26 · 5.39 |
| 15:00time provisional | Portsmouth vs Cardiff CityEFL Championship | 45.0% | 26.0% | 29.0% | 1-112.4% | 1.46-1.12 | Home45.0% | 2.22 · 3.85 · 3.44 |
| 15:00time provisional | Queens Park Rangers vs MiddlesbroughEFL Championship | 27.2% | 25.4% | 47.5% | 1-112.1% | 1.10-1.54 | Away47.5% | 3.68 · 3.94 · 2.11 |
| 15:00time provisional | Sheffield United vs Norwich CityEFL Championship | 39.0% | 26.0% | 35.0% | 1-112.4% | 1.37-1.29 | Home39.0% | 2.56 · 3.85 · 2.86 |
| 15:00time provisional | West Bromwich Albion vs WatfordEFL Championship | 56.5% | 24.0% | 19.5% | 1-012.9% | 1.69-0.88 | Home56.5% | 1.77 · 4.16 · 5.13 |
| 15:00time provisional | West Ham United vs Derby CountyEFL Championship | 50.7% | 25.2% | 24.1% | 1-112.0% | 1.58-1.00 | Home50.7% | 1.97 · 3.97 · 4.15 |
| 20:00time provisional | Swansea City vs WrexhamEFL Championship | 37.7% | 26.4% | 35.9% | 1-112.5% | 1.32-1.28 | Home37.7% | 2.65 · 3.79 · 2.78 |
EFL League One
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Peterborough United vs Sheffield WednesdayEFL League One | 38.3% | 24.6% | 37.1% | 1-111.6% | 1.39-1.36 | Home38.3% | 2.61 · 4.06 · 2.69 |
| 12:30time provisional | Wigan Athletic vs Stockport CountyEFL League One | 30.4% | 25.8% | 43.8% | 1-112.2% | 1.11-1.39 | Away43.8% | 3.29 · 3.88 · 2.28 |
| 15:00time provisional | Barnsley vs StevenageEFL League One | 37.5% | 25.8% | 36.7% | 1-112.3% | 1.28-1.26 | Home37.5% | 2.67 · 3.87 · 2.73 |
| 15:00time provisional | Bradford City vs Mansfield TownEFL League One | 38.7% | 25.7% | 35.5% | 1-112.2% | 1.31-1.24 | Home38.7% | 2.58 · 3.89 · 2.81 |
| 15:00time provisional | Burton Albion vs Cambridge UnitedEFL League One | 39.4% | 26.1% | 34.5% | 1-112.4% | 1.29-1.19 | Home39.4% | 2.54 · 3.83 · 2.90 |
| 15:00time provisional | Doncaster Rovers vs Plymouth ArgyleEFL League One | 30.7% | 24.2% | 45.0% | 1-111.5% | 1.23-1.54 | Away45.0% | 3.25 · 4.13 · 2.22 |
| 15:00time provisional | Huddersfield Town vs Notts CountyEFL League One | 50.5% | 23.6% | 25.9% | 1-111.2% | 1.64-1.11 | Home50.5% | 1.98 · 4.23 · 3.86 |
| 15:00time provisional | Leicester City vs Oxford UnitedEFL League One | 43.5% | 25.1% | 31.4% | 1-111.9% | 1.44-1.18 | Home43.5% | 2.30 · 3.99 · 3.18 |
| 15:00time provisional | Luton Town vs Leyton OrientEFL League One | 59.4% | 21.8% | 18.8% | 1-011.8% | 1.83-0.92 | Home59.4% | 1.68 · 4.59 · 5.32 |
| 15:00time provisional | Reading vs BlackpoolEFL League One | 38.5% | 25.1% | 36.4% | 1-111.9% | 1.36-1.31 | Home38.5% | 2.59 · 3.99 · 2.75 |
| 15:00time provisional | Wycombe Wanderers vs MK DonsEFL League One | 46.0% | 24.7% | 29.3% | 1-111.7% | 1.50-1.15 | Home46.0% | 2.18 · 4.05 · 3.41 |
EFL League Two
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Fleetwood Town vs Shrewsbury TownEFL League Two | 52.2% | 25.1% | 22.6% | 1-012.4% | 1.59-0.96 | Home52.2% | 1.91 · 3.98 · 4.42 |
| 12:30time provisional | Salford City vs Port ValeEFL League Two | 47.2% | 25.8% | 27.0% | 1-112.3% | 1.51-1.08 | Home47.2% | 2.12 · 3.88 · 3.70 |
| 15:00time provisional | Accrington Stanley vs Crawley TownEFL League Two | 39.0% | 26.4% | 34.7% | 1-112.5% | 1.35-1.26 | Home39.0% | 2.57 · 3.79 · 2.88 |
| 15:00time provisional | Bristol Rovers vs Rotherham UnitedEFL League Two | 50.9% | 25.0% | 24.1% | 1-111.9% | 1.61-1.02 | Home50.9% | 1.96 · 4.00 · 4.15 |
| 15:00time provisional | Cheltenham Town vs Grimsby TownEFL League Two | 24.7% | 24.7% | 50.6% | 1-111.7% | 1.07-1.64 | Away50.6% | 4.04 · 4.06 · 1.98 |
| 15:00time provisional | Chesterfield vs BarnetEFL League Two | 42.5% | 25.4% | 32.1% | 1-112.0% | 1.49-1.26 | Home42.5% | 2.35 · 3.94 · 3.11 |
| 15:00time provisional | Crewe Alexandra vs York CityEFL League Two | 30.6% | 26.2% | 43.2% | 1-112.5% | 1.16-1.43 | Away43.2% | 3.26 · 3.82 · 2.32 |
| 15:00time provisional | Exeter City vs WalsallEFL League Two | 49.2% | 25.3% | 25.4% | 1-112.1% | 1.56-1.05 | Home49.2% | 2.03 · 3.95 · 3.94 |
| 15:00time provisional | Northampton Town vs Newport CountyEFL League Two | 45.7% | 25.8% | 28.5% | 1-112.3% | 1.50-1.12 | Home45.7% | 2.19 · 3.88 · 3.51 |
| 15:00time provisional | Rochdale vs GillinghamEFL League Two | 59.8% | 23.1% | 17.2% | 1-013.1% | 1.78-0.83 | Home59.8% | 1.67 · 4.34 · 5.82 |
| 15:00time provisional | Swindon Town vs Colchester UnitedEFL League Two | 40.9% | 26.1% | 33.0% | 1-112.4% | 1.40-1.24 | Home40.9% | 2.45 · 3.83 · 3.03 |
| 15:00time provisional | Tranmere Rovers vs Oldham AthleticEFL League Two | 24.9% | 25.7% | 49.3% | 1-112.2% | 1.01-1.53 | Away49.3% | 4.01 · 3.89 · 2.03 |
Premier League
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30confirmed schedule | Newcastle United vs AFC BournemouthPremier League | 49.7% | 25.1% | 25.3% | 1-111.7% | 1.78-1.21 | Home49.7% | 2.01 · 3.99 · 3.96 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Brentford vs SunderlandPremier League | 61.8% | 21.9% | 16.4% | 1-110.3% | 2.09-1.00 | Home61.8% | 1.62 · 4.58 · 6.11 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds UnitedPremier League | 47.4% | 26.4% | 26.2% | 1-112.5% | 1.63-1.16 | Home47.4% | 2.11 · 3.79 · 3.81 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Fulham vs Crystal PalacePremier League | 50.7% | 24.1% | 25.1% | 1-111.0% | 1.89-1.28 | Home50.7% | 1.97 · 4.15 · 3.98 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Manchester City vs Coventry CityPremier League | 76.1% | 15.4% | 8.5% | 2-010.8% | 2.70-0.83 | Home76.1% | 1.31 · 6.50 · 11.80 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham HotspurPremier League | 49.6% | 24.6% | 25.8% | 1-111.4% | 1.82-1.27 | Home49.6% | 2.02 · 4.06 · 3.88 |
| 17:30confirmed schedule | Hull City vs Aston VillaPremier League | 30.8% | 26.9% | 42.3% | 1-112.7% | 1.27-1.53 | Away42.3% | 3.25 · 3.72 · 2.36 |
Serie A
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00confirmed schedule | Fiorentina vs TorinoSerie A | 48.7% | 26.2% | 25.0% | 1-112.4% | 1.52-1.01 | Home48.7% | 2.05 · 3.82 · 3.99 |
| 17:00confirmed schedule | Inter vs NapoliSerie A | 46.1% | 26.1% | 27.8% | 1-112.4% | 1.51-1.11 | Home46.1% | 2.17 · 3.83 · 3.60 |
| 19:45confirmed schedule | Roma vs AtalantaSerie A | 45.9% | 26.3% | 27.8% | 1-112.5% | 1.49-1.10 | Home45.9% | 2.18 · 3.80 · 3.59 |
Bundesliga
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30confirmed schedule | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union BerlinBundesliga | 68.7% | 18.4% | 12.9% | 2-09.9% | 2.42-0.96 | Home68.7% | 1.46 · 5.43 · 7.73 |
| 14:30confirmed schedule | Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV ElversbergBundesliga | 51.4% | 23.4% | 25.2% | 1-110.5% | 1.94-1.30 | Home51.4% | 1.94 · 4.27 · 3.98 |
| 14:30confirmed schedule | SC Paderborn 07 vs Sport-Club FreiburgBundesliga | 37.5% | 24.8% | 37.7% | 1-111.1% | 1.59-1.60 | Away37.7% | 2.67 · 4.03 · 2.65 |
| 14:30confirmed schedule | SV Werder Bremen vs RB LeipzigBundesliga | 21.8% | 22.6% | 55.6% | 1-110.2% | 1.20-2.03 | Away55.6% | 4.58 · 4.42 · 1.80 |
| 14:30confirmed schedule | TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia DortmundBundesliga | 26.0% | 23.0% | 51.0% | 1-110.0% | 1.38-2.00 | Away51.0% | 3.84 · 4.35 · 1.96 |
| 17:30confirmed schedule | FC Schalke 04 vs FC Bayern MünchenBundesliga | 14.8% | 18.7% | 66.5% | 1-29.4% | 1.09-2.46 | Away66.5% | 6.75 · 5.35 · 1.50 |
La Liga
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:15time provisional | Athletic Club vs Atlético de MadridLa Liga | 37.1% | 26.1% | 36.8% | 1-112.4% | 1.32-1.32 | Home37.1% | 2.70 · 3.82 · 2.72 |
| 17:30time provisional | Rayo Vallecano vs R. Racing ClubLa Liga | 67.8% | 19.7% | 12.4% | 2-012.9% | 2.04-0.74 | Home67.8% | 1.47 · 5.07 · 8.03 |
| 20:00time provisional | Villarreal CF vs RC DeportivoLa Liga | 67.2% | 18.9% | 13.9% | 2-011.0% | 2.20-0.89 | Home67.2% | 1.49 · 5.30 · 7.17 |
Ligue 1
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:15time provisional | RC Lens vs FC LorientLigue 1 | 60.5% | 20.8% | 18.7% | 1-010.1% | 1.98-1.00 | Home60.5% | 1.65 · 4.81 · 5.34 |
| 19:45time provisional | Havre Athletic Club vs Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1 | 30.9% | 24.0% | 45.2% | 1-111.3% | 1.27-1.59 | Away45.2% | 3.24 · 4.17 · 2.21 |
| 19:45time provisional | OGC Nice vs Le Mans FCLigue 1 | 48.6% | 23.9% | 27.5% | 1-111.3% | 1.62-1.16 | Home48.6% | 2.06 · 4.18 · 3.64 |
Dated evidence
Fixture status, model version and update date are published beside the board.
No odds in the model
Bookmaker prices never change the core sporting forecast.
No synthetic fixtures
Model-draw and format-only UEFA pairings are excluded from daily listings.