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THE PROBABILITY DESK · FRIDAY, 4 SEPTEMBER 2026

Football predictions on Friday, 4 September 2026

6 verified-schedule fixtures are listed across 5 competitions on Friday, 4 September 2026. The highest single 1X2 probability is VfB Stuttgart win at 71.3%; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

VERIFIED FIXTURES6
COMPETITIONS5
CONFIRMED 3PM0
MODEL PATHS100,000
EVERY SUPPORTED COMPETITION

Friday, 4 September 2026 football predictions

Probabilities are generated independently of bookmaker prices. Fair odds are the decimal inverse of the model probability and do not include a safety margin. 3 listed kick-off times are provisional.

Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
18:00time provisionalOlympique Lyonnais vs AJ AuxerreLigue 152.1%22.9%25.0%1-110.8%1.75-1.14Home52.1%1.92 · 4.37 · 3.99
20:05time provisionalParis Saint-Germain vs AS MonacoLigue 158.8%20.5%20.7%2-19.9%2.04-1.13Home58.8%1.70 · 4.88 · 4.83
Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
19:30confirmed scheduleVfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC KölnBundesliga71.3%17.0%11.7%2-09.5%2.59-0.97Home71.3%1.40 · 5.89 · 8.55
Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
19:45confirmed scheduleGenoa vs ComoSerie A23.0%25.8%51.2%0-112.4%0.96-1.57Away51.2%4.35 · 3.88 · 1.95
Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
20:00time provisionalReal Betis vs Real MadridLa Liga31.0%25.4%43.6%1-112.1%1.22-1.49Away43.6%3.23 · 3.93 · 2.30
Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
20:00confirmed scheduleIpswich Town vs LiverpoolPremier League32.3%25.5%42.3%1-111.7%1.43-1.66Away42.3%3.10 · 3.92 · 2.37
DIRECT ANSWER

Probabilities, not picks

Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.

FRESHNESS

Dated evidence

Fixture status, model version and update date are published beside the board.

SEPARATION

No odds in the model

Bookmaker prices never change the core sporting forecast.

PROVENANCE

No synthetic fixtures

Model-draw and format-only UEFA pairings are excluded from daily listings.