Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Newcastle United win the strongest outcome at 47.5%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
AFC BournemouthBOU51.4 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Newcastle vs Bournemouth scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.6%
9.5%
7.5%
7.3%
6.9%
Newcastle 1.76 · Bournemouth 1.29
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
41.7% to 54.7%
The Newcastle home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
9 vs 11
Current mean projected league positions for Newcastle and Bournemouth.
Matchweek 3
Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 12:30 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.07 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.007 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.095 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.021 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Newcastle vs Bournemouth prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth?
Newcastle United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 47.5%. The draw is 25.1%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth?
The most likely exact score is Newcastle United 1-1 AFC Bournemouth, with an estimated probability of 11.6%.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth?
The model gives both teams to score a 60.8% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 58.6% probability.
When is Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth?
Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth is scheduled for Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 12:30 UK time.