Hull City vs Aston Villa prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Aston Villa win the strongest outcome at 42.3%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Hull CityHUL42.5 projected points
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Hull vs Aston Villa scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.7%
9.0%
8.3%
7.5%
7.1%
Hull 1.27 · Aston Villa 1.53
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
23.8% to 39.2%
The Hull home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
17 vs 8
Current mean projected league positions for Hull and Aston Villa.
Matchweek 3
Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 17:30 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.77 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.032 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.087 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.213 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Hull vs Aston Villa prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 42.3%. The draw is 26.9%.
What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Aston Villa?
The most likely exact score is Hull City 1-1 Aston Villa, with an estimated probability of 12.7%.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Aston Villa?
The model gives both teams to score a 57.4% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 53.2% probability.
When is Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Hull City vs Aston Villa is scheduled for Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 17:30 UK time.