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THE PROBABILITY DESK · SATURDAY, 5 DECEMBER 2026

Football predictions on Saturday, 5 December 2026

23 active verified-schedule fixtures are listed across 3 competitions on Saturday, 5 December 2026. The highest single 1X2 probability is Napoli win at 67.8%; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

ACTIVE FIXTURES23
COMPETITIONS3
CONFIRMED 3PM0
MODEL PATHS100,000
EVERY SUPPORTED COMPETITION

Saturday, 5 December 2026 football predictions

Probabilities are generated independently of bookmaker prices. Fair odds are the decimal inverse of the model probability and do not include a safety margin. 23 listed kick-off times are provisional.

Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
12:30time provisionalBolton Wanderers vs Blackburn RoversEFL Championship41.9%26.9%31.2%1-112.8%1.35-1.13Home41.9%2.39 · 3.72 · 3.20
12:30time provisionalBristol City vs Swansea CityEFL Championship39.7%26.8%33.5%1-112.7%1.33-1.20Home39.7%2.52 · 3.74 · 2.98
12:30time provisionalMiddlesbrough vs Derby CountyEFL Championship48.1%25.5%26.4%1-112.1%1.53-1.07Home48.1%2.08 · 3.92 · 3.79
12:30time provisionalWatford vs MillwallEFL Championship23.4%25.7%51.0%0-112.8%0.95-1.54Away51.0%4.28 · 3.90 · 1.96
15:00time provisionalCardiff City vs Lincoln CityEFL Championship39.1%26.6%34.3%1-112.6%1.33-1.23Home39.1%2.55 · 3.76 · 2.92
15:00time provisionalCharlton Athletic vs Birmingham CityEFL Championship32.3%27.1%40.6%1-112.8%1.15-1.32Away40.6%3.09 · 3.70 · 2.46
15:00time provisionalNorwich City vs WrexhamEFL Championship42.8%25.6%31.6%1-112.2%1.47-1.23Home42.8%2.34 · 3.91 · 3.16
15:00time provisionalPortsmouth vs West Bromwich AlbionEFL Championship41.0%27.1%31.9%1-112.8%1.33-1.14Home41.0%2.44 · 3.69 · 3.13
15:00time provisionalStoke City vs Queens Park RangersEFL Championship40.2%27.0%32.7%1-112.8%1.32-1.16Home40.2%2.49 · 3.70 · 3.06
15:00time provisionalWolverhampton Wanderers vs SouthamptonEFL Championship33.1%26.2%40.7%1-112.5%1.22-1.39Away40.7%3.02 · 3.82 · 2.46
Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
14:00time provisionalMonza vs ComoSerie A23.1%25.3%51.6%1-112.0%1.00-1.62Away51.6%4.33 · 3.96 · 1.94
17:00time provisionalFrosinone vs InterSerie A17.5%22.2%60.2%0-111.2%0.92-1.91Away60.2%5.71 · 4.50 · 1.66
19:45time provisionalNapoli vs LecceSerie A67.8%20.4%11.8%1-013.6%1.99-0.69Home67.8%1.47 · 4.90 · 8.48
Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
20:00time provisionalAFC Bournemouth vs Hull CityPremier League63.6%21.8%14.7%2-011.0%2.07-0.90Home63.6%1.57 · 4.60 · 6.81
20:00time provisionalAston Villa vs Crystal PalacePremier League61.0%22.3%16.8%1-110.5%2.05-0.99Home61.0%1.64 · 4.49 · 5.96
20:00time provisionalBrentford vs Manchester CityPremier League33.7%25.1%41.2%1-111.3%1.50-1.68Away41.2%2.96 · 3.99 · 2.43
20:00time provisionalChelsea vs LiverpoolPremier League38.2%27.3%34.5%1-113.0%1.43-1.35Home38.2%2.62 · 3.66 · 2.90
20:00time provisionalEverton vs FulhamPremier League40.7%28.4%30.8%1-113.6%1.39-1.18Home40.7%2.45 · 3.52 · 3.24
20:00time provisionalLeeds United vs Ipswich TownPremier League48.2%26.5%25.3%1-112.6%1.62-1.12Home48.2%2.08 · 3.77 · 3.95
20:00time provisionalManchester United vs Coventry CityPremier League67.0%20.5%12.6%2-011.6%2.17-0.84Home67.0%1.49 · 4.89 · 7.95
20:00time provisionalNewcastle United vs SunderlandPremier League60.7%22.8%16.5%1-110.8%1.99-0.95Home60.7%1.65 · 4.40 · 6.05
20:00time provisionalNottingham Forest vs Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier League42.5%27.9%29.6%1-113.3%1.46-1.18Home42.5%2.35 · 3.59 · 3.38
20:00time provisionalTottenham Hotspur vs ArsenalPremier League29.9%26.0%44.1%1-112.2%1.31-1.63Away44.1%3.35 · 3.84 · 2.27
MODEL BREAKDOWN

Understand the forecast before the match

Preview: Napoli win is the strongest published outcome at 67.8%. Even this outcome can lose.

Football predictions on Saturday, 5 December 2026: common questions

Who will win on Saturday, 5 December 2026?

Napoli win has the highest published 1X2 probability on this board at 67.8%. That is an estimate, not a guaranteed winner.

What are the best football predictions on Saturday, 5 December 2026?

Compare home, draw and away probabilities, expected goals and uncertainty rather than treating one pick as certain. The largest probability is not automatically a value bet: the offered price, freshness and model limitations also matter.

Which matches are on on Saturday, 5 December 2026?

Saturday, 5 December 2026 has 23 active fixtures across EFL Championship, Serie A, Premier League. The board below shows teams, UK kick-off times and fixture status. Postponed and completed matches are labelled separately.

Are these Premier League predictions today?

The board includes verified Premier League fixtures when scheduled on this date, alongside supported English and European competitions. Use Premier League fixture predictions for the complete league schedule.

DIRECT ANSWER

Probabilities, not picks

Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.

FRESHNESS

Dated evidence

Fixture status, model version and update date are published beside the board.

SEPARATION

No odds in the model

Bookmaker prices never change the core sporting forecast.

PROVENANCE

No synthetic fixtures

Model-draw and format-only UEFA pairings are excluded from daily listings.

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