Probabilities, not picks
Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.
Football predictions on Saturday, 12 September 2026
54 verified-schedule fixtures are listed across 7 competitions on Saturday, 12 September 2026. The highest single 1X2 probability is Borussia Dortmund win at 74.1%; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
VERIFIED FIXTURES54
COMPETITIONS7
CONFIRMED 3PM5
MODEL PATHS100,000
CONFIRMED SATURDAY 3PM KICK-OFFS
The 3pm probability board
Only fixtures with an explicitly confirmed 15:00 UK kick-off are included here. Provisional EFL times remain in the competition sections below and are clearly labelled.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00confirmed schedule | AFC Bournemouth vs BrentfordPremier League | 43.5% | 26.5% | 30.0% | 1-112.5% | 1.58-1.28 | Home43.5% | 2.30 · 3.78 · 3.33 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Aston Villa vs Nottingham ForestPremier League | 50.0% | 25.5% | 24.5% | 1-112.1% | 1.73-1.15 | Home50.0% | 2.00 · 3.92 · 4.09 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Chelsea vs Hull CityPremier League | 68.0% | 19.6% | 12.4% | 2-011.1% | 2.26-0.88 | Home68.0% | 1.47 · 5.09 · 8.07 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Crystal Palace vs Ipswich TownPremier League | 43.6% | 26.0% | 30.4% | 1-112.2% | 1.63-1.33 | Home43.6% | 2.29 · 3.84 · 3.29 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Liverpool vs FulhamPremier League | 63.1% | 20.1% | 16.8% | 2-19.6% | 2.34-1.15 | Home63.1% | 1.58 · 4.97 · 5.95 |
EVERY SUPPORTED COMPETITION
Saturday, 12 September 2026 football predictions
Probabilities are generated independently of bookmaker prices. Fair odds are the decimal inverse of the model probability and do not include a safety margin. 38 listed kick-off times are provisional.
Serie A
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00confirmed schedule | Sassuolo vs JuventusSerie A | 23.8% | 25.1% | 51.1% | 1-111.9% | 1.03-1.64 | Away51.1% | 4.21 · 3.98 · 1.96 |
| 14:00confirmed schedule | Genoa vs FrosinoneSerie A | 37.5% | 27.6% | 34.9% | 1-113.1% | 1.27-1.21 | Home37.5% | 2.66 · 3.62 · 2.87 |
| 19:45confirmed schedule | Atalanta vs CagliariSerie A | 60.6% | 22.4% | 17.0% | 1-011.7% | 1.89-0.89 | Home60.6% | 1.65 · 4.46 · 5.87 |
EFL Championship
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Bolton Wanderers vs Cardiff CityEFL Championship | 40.9% | 26.3% | 32.8% | 1-112.5% | 1.38-1.21 | Home40.9% | 2.44 · 3.81 · 3.05 |
| 12:30time provisional | Derby County vs Birmingham CityEFL Championship | 42.9% | 26.8% | 30.4% | 1-112.7% | 1.38-1.11 | Home42.9% | 2.33 · 3.74 · 3.29 |
| 12:30time provisional | West Bromwich Albion vs Queens Park RangersEFL Championship | 54.2% | 24.5% | 21.2% | 1-012.5% | 1.65-0.93 | Home54.2% | 1.84 · 4.08 · 4.71 |
| 15:00time provisional | Blackburn Rovers vs MillwallEFL Championship | 30.1% | 27.7% | 42.2% | 1-113.0% | 1.05-1.30 | Away42.2% | 3.32 · 3.61 · 2.37 |
| 15:00time provisional | Charlton Athletic vs PortsmouthEFL Championship | 36.5% | 27.0% | 36.5% | 1-112.8% | 1.25-1.25 | Home36.5% | 2.74 · 3.70 · 2.74 |
| 15:00time provisional | Middlesbrough vs Norwich CityEFL Championship | 45.9% | 25.3% | 28.8% | 1-112.0% | 1.53-1.16 | Home45.9% | 2.18 · 3.95 · 3.47 |
| 15:00time provisional | Preston North End vs Lincoln CityEFL Championship | 32.4% | 26.9% | 40.7% | 1-112.8% | 1.16-1.34 | Away40.7% | 3.09 · 3.72 · 2.45 |
| 15:00time provisional | Southampton vs Bristol CityEFL Championship | 59.4% | 22.3% | 18.3% | 1-011.5% | 1.86-0.92 | Home59.4% | 1.68 · 4.49 · 5.47 |
| 15:00time provisional | Swansea City vs BurnleyEFL Championship | 43.8% | 26.5% | 29.7% | 1-112.6% | 1.41-1.11 | Home43.8% | 2.28 · 3.78 · 3.37 |
| 15:00time provisional | Watford vs Stoke CityEFL Championship | 43.5% | 26.9% | 29.6% | 1-112.7% | 1.37-1.08 | Home43.5% | 2.30 · 3.72 · 3.38 |
EFL League One
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Leyton Orient vs Wycombe WanderersEFL League One | 36.4% | 25.6% | 38.0% | 1-112.2% | 1.27-1.30 | Away38.0% | 2.75 · 3.90 · 2.63 |
| 12:30time provisional | Notts County vs Bradford CityEFL League One | 37.3% | 25.6% | 37.1% | 1-112.2% | 1.29-1.29 | Home37.3% | 2.68 · 3.91 · 2.70 |
| 15:00time provisional | AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster RoversEFL League One | 34.3% | 25.7% | 40.0% | 1-112.2% | 1.22-1.33 | Away40.0% | 2.91 · 3.89 · 2.50 |
| 15:00time provisional | Blackpool vs BromleyEFL League One | 50.5% | 24.1% | 25.4% | 1-111.5% | 1.59-1.05 | Home50.5% | 1.98 · 4.15 · 3.94 |
| 15:00time provisional | Cambridge United vs ReadingEFL League One | 42.1% | 25.3% | 32.6% | 1-112.0% | 1.41-1.20 | Home42.1% | 2.37 · 3.96 · 3.06 |
| 15:00time provisional | Mansfield Town vs Huddersfield TownEFL League One | 50.1% | 23.8% | 26.1% | 1-111.3% | 1.62-1.10 | Home50.1% | 2.00 · 4.20 · 3.83 |
| 15:00time provisional | MK Dons vs Peterborough UnitedEFL League One | 54.1% | 22.5% | 23.5% | 1-110.6% | 1.78-1.09 | Home54.1% | 1.85 · 4.45 · 4.26 |
| 15:00time provisional | Oxford United vs Burton AlbionEFL League One | 56.0% | 23.1% | 20.8% | 1-012.4% | 1.70-0.93 | Home56.0% | 1.79 · 4.32 · 4.80 |
| 15:00time provisional | Plymouth Argyle vs BarnsleyEFL League One | 61.7% | 20.1% | 18.2% | 2-110.1% | 2.04-1.01 | Home61.7% | 1.62 · 4.98 · 5.49 |
| 15:00time provisional | Sheffield Wednesday vs Wigan AthleticEFL League One | 43.8% | 25.9% | 30.2% | 1-112.3% | 1.38-1.10 | Home43.8% | 2.28 · 3.86 · 3.31 |
| 15:00time provisional | Stockport County vs Leicester CityEFL League One | 51.4% | 23.7% | 24.9% | 1-111.2% | 1.64-1.07 | Home51.4% | 1.95 · 4.23 · 4.01 |
EFL League Two
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Crawley Town vs Cheltenham TownEFL League Two | 41.4% | 26.0% | 32.6% | 1-112.3% | 1.42-1.23 | Home41.4% | 2.42 · 3.85 · 3.06 |
| 12:30time provisional | Grimsby Town vs Bristol RoversEFL League Two | 43.1% | 26.0% | 30.9% | 1-112.4% | 1.45-1.19 | Home43.1% | 2.32 · 3.85 · 3.23 |
| 15:00time provisional | Barnet vs Accrington StanleyEFL League Two | 70.6% | 17.9% | 11.4% | 2-012.3% | 2.24-0.77 | Home70.6% | 1.42 · 5.57 · 8.77 |
| 15:00time provisional | Colchester United vs Crewe AlexandraEFL League Two | 44.1% | 26.6% | 29.2% | 1-112.6% | 1.41-1.09 | Home44.1% | 2.27 · 3.76 · 3.42 |
| 15:00time provisional | Gillingham vs Tranmere RoversEFL League Two | 44.9% | 26.7% | 28.3% | 1-112.7% | 1.41-1.06 | Home44.9% | 2.23 · 3.74 · 3.53 |
| 15:00time provisional | Newport County vs Fleetwood TownEFL League Two | 35.9% | 26.4% | 37.8% | 1-112.5% | 1.29-1.33 | Away37.8% | 2.79 · 3.79 · 2.65 |
| 15:00time provisional | Oldham Athletic vs ChesterfieldEFL League Two | 32.7% | 26.4% | 40.9% | 1-112.6% | 1.20-1.38 | Away40.9% | 3.06 · 3.78 · 2.45 |
| 15:00time provisional | Port Vale vs Exeter CityEFL League Two | 41.7% | 26.8% | 31.5% | 1-112.7% | 1.37-1.15 | Home41.7% | 2.40 · 3.74 · 3.17 |
| 15:00time provisional | Rotherham United vs Salford CityEFL League Two | 32.6% | 26.4% | 41.0% | 1-112.6% | 1.20-1.38 | Away41.0% | 3.07 · 3.78 · 2.44 |
| 15:00time provisional | Shrewsbury Town vs Northampton TownEFL League Two | 34.0% | 27.3% | 38.7% | 1-113.0% | 1.18-1.27 | Away38.7% | 2.94 · 3.66 · 2.59 |
| 15:00time provisional | Walsall vs RochdaleEFL League Two | 31.2% | 26.4% | 42.4% | 1-112.5% | 1.17-1.41 | Away42.4% | 3.20 · 3.79 · 2.36 |
| 15:00time provisional | York City vs Swindon TownEFL League Two | 54.0% | 23.4% | 22.6% | 1-111.1% | 1.77-1.06 | Home54.0% | 1.85 · 4.27 · 4.43 |
Bundesliga
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30confirmed schedule | 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga | 45.3% | 24.7% | 30.0% | 1-111.2% | 1.75-1.38 | Home45.3% | 2.21 · 4.05 · 3.33 |
| 14:30confirmed schedule | Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga | 74.1% | 15.6% | 10.3% | 2-09.2% | 2.75-0.96 | Home74.1% | 1.35 · 6.41 · 9.66 |
| 14:30confirmed schedule | FC Augsburg vs Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesliga | 21.4% | 22.5% | 56.1% | 1-110.2% | 1.19-2.04 | Away56.1% | 4.67 · 4.44 · 1.78 |
| 14:30confirmed schedule | Sport-Club Freiburg vs Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga | 44.4% | 24.6% | 31.0% | 1-111.1% | 1.75-1.43 | Home44.4% | 2.25 · 4.06 · 3.23 |
| 14:30confirmed schedule | TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB StuttgartBundesliga | 32.1% | 23.9% | 43.9% | 1-110.3% | 1.53-1.82 | Away43.9% | 3.11 · 4.18 · 2.28 |
| 17:30confirmed schedule | 1. FC Köln vs SV Werder BremenBundesliga | 42.3% | 25.3% | 32.5% | 1-111.6% | 1.64-1.41 | Home42.3% | 2.36 · 3.96 · 3.08 |
Premier League
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00confirmed schedule | AFC Bournemouth vs BrentfordPremier League | 43.5% | 26.5% | 30.0% | 1-112.5% | 1.58-1.28 | Home43.5% | 2.30 · 3.78 · 3.33 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Aston Villa vs Nottingham ForestPremier League | 50.0% | 25.5% | 24.5% | 1-112.1% | 1.73-1.15 | Home50.0% | 2.00 · 3.92 · 4.09 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Chelsea vs Hull CityPremier League | 68.0% | 19.6% | 12.4% | 2-011.1% | 2.26-0.88 | Home68.0% | 1.47 · 5.09 · 8.07 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Crystal Palace vs Ipswich TownPremier League | 43.6% | 26.0% | 30.4% | 1-112.2% | 1.63-1.33 | Home43.6% | 2.29 · 3.84 · 3.29 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Liverpool vs FulhamPremier League | 63.1% | 20.1% | 16.8% | 2-19.6% | 2.34-1.15 | Home63.1% | 1.58 · 4.97 · 5.95 |
| 17:30confirmed schedule | Tottenham Hotspur vs EvertonPremier League | 45.2% | 25.7% | 29.1% | 1-112.0% | 1.68-1.31 | Home45.2% | 2.21 · 3.89 · 3.44 |
| 20:00confirmed schedule | Sunderland vs ArsenalPremier League | 17.5% | 22.9% | 59.6% | 1-110.8% | 0.99-1.99 | Away59.6% | 5.73 · 4.37 · 1.68 |
Ligue 1
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:15time provisional | RC Strasbourg Alsace vs AS MonacoLigue 1 | 40.6% | 23.7% | 35.8% | 1-110.9% | 1.55-1.44 | Home40.6% | 2.47 · 4.23 · 2.79 |
| 19:45time provisional | AJ Auxerre vs OGC NiceLigue 1 | 48.9% | 24.0% | 27.1% | 1-111.4% | 1.61-1.14 | Home48.9% | 2.05 · 4.16 · 3.69 |
| 19:45time provisional | FC Lorient vs Toulouse FCLigue 1 | 41.8% | 24.2% | 34.0% | 1-111.4% | 1.51-1.34 | Home41.8% | 2.39 · 4.13 · 2.94 |
| 19:45time provisional | Havre Athletic Club vs Angers SCOLigue 1 | 38.8% | 25.1% | 36.1% | 1-111.9% | 1.38-1.32 | Home38.8% | 2.58 · 3.98 · 2.77 |
| 19:45time provisional | Paris FC vs Olympique LyonnaisLigue 1 | 41.6% | 24.1% | 34.3% | 1-111.3% | 1.52-1.36 | Home41.6% | 2.40 · 4.14 · 2.92 |
Dated evidence
Fixture status, model version and update date are published beside the board.
No odds in the model
Bookmaker prices never change the core sporting forecast.
No synthetic fixtures
Model-draw and format-only UEFA pairings are excluded from daily listings.