Sunderland vs Arsenal prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 59.6%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
SunderlandSUN38.8 projected points
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Sunderland vs Arsenal scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.8%
10.0%
10.0%
9.3%
6.7%
Sunderland 0.99 · Arsenal 1.99
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
15.0% to 22.0%
The Sunderland home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
19 vs 1
Current mean projected league positions for Sunderland and Arsenal.
Matchweek 4
Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 20:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.82 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.062 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.186 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.046 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Sunderland vs Arsenal prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Sunderland vs Arsenal?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 59.6%. The draw is 22.9%.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Arsenal?
The most likely exact score is Sunderland 1-1 Arsenal, with an estimated probability of 10.8%.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Arsenal?
The model gives both teams to score a 55.1% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 57.1% probability.
When is Sunderland vs Arsenal?
Sunderland vs Arsenal is scheduled for Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 20:00 UK time.