Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Aston Villa win the strongest outcome at 50.0%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
Nottingham ForestNFO49.9 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Aston Villa vs Nott'm Forest scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.1%
9.7%
8.8%
8.4%
6.5%
Aston Villa 1.73 · Nott'm Forest 1.15
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
42.9% to 57.6%
The Aston Villa home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
8 vs 13
Current mean projected league positions for Aston Villa and Nott'm Forest.
Matchweek 4
Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 15:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.22 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.031 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.032 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.107 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Aston Villa vs Nott'm Forest prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Aston Villa win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 50.0%. The draw is 25.5%.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
The most likely exact score is Aston Villa 1-1 Nottingham Forest, with an estimated probability of 12.1%.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
The model gives both teams to score a 57.2% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 55.0% probability.
When is Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest is scheduled for Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 15:00 UK time.