Probabilities, not picks
Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.
Football predictions on Saturday, 17 October 2026
61 verified-schedule fixtures are listed across 7 competitions on Saturday, 17 October 2026. The highest single 1X2 probability is Manchester City win at 70.5%; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
VERIFIED FIXTURES61
COMPETITIONS7
CONFIRMED 3PM3
MODEL PATHS100,000
CONFIRMED SATURDAY 3PM KICK-OFFS
The 3pm probability board
Only fixtures with an explicitly confirmed 15:00 UK kick-off are included here. Provisional EFL times remain in the competition sections below and are clearly labelled.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Brentford vs LiverpoolPremier League | 34.6% | 26.6% | 38.9% | 1-112.4% | 1.41-1.50 | Away38.9% | 2.89 · 3.77 · 2.57 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Fulham vs Hull CityPremier League | 51.7% | 25.4% | 22.9% | 1-112.1% | 1.74-1.09 | Home51.7% | 1.93 · 3.93 · 4.37 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Manchester City vs Ipswich TownPremier League | 70.5% | 17.7% | 11.8% | 2-09.8% | 2.52-0.96 | Home70.5% | 1.42 · 5.65 · 8.50 |
EVERY SUPPORTED COMPETITION
Saturday, 17 October 2026 football predictions
Probabilities are generated independently of bookmaker prices. Fair odds are the decimal inverse of the model probability and do not include a safety margin. 56 listed kick-off times are provisional.
Serie A
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00time provisional | Bologna vs InterSerie A | 23.7% | 25.0% | 51.3% | 1-111.9% | 1.04-1.65 | Away51.3% | 4.21 · 4.01 · 1.95 |
| 01:00time provisional | Fiorentina vs ComoSerie A | 32.1% | 26.9% | 41.0% | 1-112.8% | 1.19-1.38 | Away41.0% | 3.12 · 3.72 · 2.44 |
| 01:00time provisional | Frosinone vs SassuoloSerie A | 40.2% | 26.2% | 33.6% | 1-112.4% | 1.42-1.28 | Home40.2% | 2.49 · 3.81 · 2.98 |
| 01:00time provisional | Juventus vs LazioSerie A | 49.4% | 26.2% | 24.4% | 1-112.4% | 1.53-0.99 | Home49.4% | 2.02 · 3.81 · 4.11 |
| 01:00time provisional | Milan vs AtalantaSerie A | 38.1% | 26.6% | 35.3% | 1-112.6% | 1.35-1.29 | Home38.1% | 2.62 · 3.76 · 2.83 |
| 01:00time provisional | Monza vs CagliariSerie A | 42.1% | 27.1% | 30.8% | 1-112.9% | 1.39-1.14 | Home42.1% | 2.37 · 3.69 · 3.25 |
| 01:00time provisional | Parma vs TorinoSerie A | 38.8% | 28.1% | 33.1% | 1-113.3% | 1.26-1.14 | Home38.8% | 2.57 · 3.56 · 3.03 |
| 01:00time provisional | Roma vs GenoaSerie A | 62.8% | 22.2% | 15.0% | 1-013.1% | 1.87-0.78 | Home62.8% | 1.59 · 4.50 · 6.67 |
| 01:00time provisional | Udinese vs LecceSerie A | 49.4% | 26.8% | 23.8% | 1-013.1% | 1.48-0.94 | Home49.4% | 2.03 · 3.73 · 4.20 |
| 01:00time provisional | Venezia vs NapoliSerie A | 21.5% | 24.7% | 53.8% | 0-111.9% | 0.96-1.68 | Away53.8% | 4.66 · 4.05 · 1.86 |
EFL Championship
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Middlesbrough vs Cardiff CityEFL Championship | 54.2% | 23.9% | 22.0% | 1-011.4% | 1.71-1.00 | Home54.2% | 1.85 · 4.19 · 4.55 |
| 12:30time provisional | Millwall vs Lincoln CityEFL Championship | 50.5% | 25.7% | 23.7% | 1-012.7% | 1.53-0.96 | Home50.5% | 1.98 · 3.88 · 4.21 |
| 12:30time provisional | Watford vs Charlton AthleticEFL Championship | 38.9% | 27.0% | 34.1% | 1-112.8% | 1.29-1.19 | Home38.9% | 2.57 · 3.70 · 2.93 |
| 15:00time provisional | Birmingham City vs Queens Park RangersEFL Championship | 56.9% | 23.5% | 19.6% | 1-012.3% | 1.74-0.91 | Home56.9% | 1.76 · 4.25 · 5.11 |
| 15:00time provisional | Bristol City vs Sheffield UnitedEFL Championship | 40.0% | 26.5% | 33.5% | 1-112.6% | 1.35-1.21 | Home40.0% | 2.50 · 3.77 · 2.99 |
| 15:00time provisional | Derby County vs Stoke CityEFL Championship | 58.8% | 23.3% | 17.8% | 1-013.1% | 1.74-0.84 | Home58.8% | 1.70 · 4.28 · 5.61 |
| 15:00time provisional | Norwich City vs PortsmouthEFL Championship | 50.9% | 24.6% | 24.5% | 1-111.7% | 1.63-1.05 | Home50.9% | 1.97 · 4.06 · 4.08 |
| 15:00time provisional | Southampton vs Bolton WanderersEFL Championship | 62.3% | 21.1% | 16.6% | 1-011.1% | 1.97-0.90 | Home62.3% | 1.61 · 4.73 · 6.03 |
| 15:00time provisional | Swansea City vs West Ham UnitedEFL Championship | 34.4% | 26.7% | 39.0% | 1-112.7% | 1.22-1.32 | Away39.0% | 2.91 · 3.75 · 2.57 |
| 15:00time provisional | West Bromwich Albion vs Blackburn RoversEFL Championship | 47.6% | 26.7% | 25.8% | 1-012.9% | 1.43-0.98 | Home47.6% | 2.10 · 3.75 · 3.88 |
| 15:00time provisional | Wrexham vs Preston North EndEFL Championship | 60.3% | 22.3% | 17.4% | 1-012.0% | 1.85-0.88 | Home60.3% | 1.66 · 4.49 · 5.74 |
EFL League One
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | MK Dons vs Luton TownEFL League One | 34.7% | 25.1% | 40.2% | 1-111.9% | 1.27-1.39 | Away40.2% | 2.88 · 3.98 · 2.49 |
| 12:30time provisional | Peterborough United vs Burton AlbionEFL League One | 43.8% | 24.7% | 31.5% | 1-111.7% | 1.48-1.22 | Home43.8% | 2.28 · 4.05 · 3.17 |
| 15:00time provisional | Barnsley vs Cambridge UnitedEFL League One | 43.9% | 24.6% | 31.5% | 1-111.7% | 1.48-1.22 | Home43.9% | 2.28 · 4.06 · 3.18 |
| 15:00time provisional | Bradford City vs StevenageEFL League One | 43.3% | 26.8% | 29.9% | 1-012.7% | 1.31-1.04 | Home43.3% | 2.31 · 3.74 · 3.34 |
| 15:00time provisional | Leicester City vs Doncaster RoversEFL League One | 50.8% | 23.8% | 25.5% | 1-111.3% | 1.63-1.08 | Home50.8% | 1.97 · 4.21 · 3.93 |
| 15:00time provisional | Leyton Orient vs BlackpoolEFL League One | 35.3% | 25.5% | 39.2% | 1-112.1% | 1.25-1.34 | Away39.2% | 2.83 · 3.92 · 2.55 |
| 15:00time provisional | Plymouth Argyle vs Huddersfield TownEFL League One | 54.4% | 22.5% | 23.1% | 1-110.6% | 1.77-1.07 | Home54.4% | 1.84 · 4.44 · 4.33 |
| 15:00time provisional | Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC WimbledonEFL League One | 53.5% | 23.7% | 22.7% | 1-012.2% | 1.64-0.97 | Home53.5% | 1.87 · 4.21 · 4.40 |
| 15:00time provisional | Stockport County vs BromleyEFL League One | 58.2% | 22.1% | 19.7% | 1-011.7% | 1.80-0.94 | Home58.2% | 1.72 · 4.52 · 5.09 |
| 15:00time provisional | Wigan Athletic vs ReadingEFL League One | 42.7% | 25.7% | 31.6% | 1-112.2% | 1.38-1.14 | Home42.7% | 2.34 · 3.89 · 3.17 |
| 15:00time provisional | Wycombe Wanderers vs Notts CountyEFL League One | 50.6% | 23.8% | 25.6% | 1-111.3% | 1.63-1.08 | Home50.6% | 1.98 · 4.20 · 3.91 |
EFL League Two
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham UnitedEFL League Two | 40.2% | 26.7% | 33.1% | 1-112.7% | 1.35-1.20 | Home40.2% | 2.48 · 3.75 · 3.02 |
| 12:30time provisional | Shrewsbury Town vs Bristol RoversEFL League Two | 22.9% | 25.1% | 52.0% | 0-112.3% | 0.97-1.60 | Away52.0% | 4.37 · 3.98 · 1.92 |
| 15:00time provisional | Accrington Stanley vs GillinghamEFL League Two | 38.3% | 27.5% | 34.3% | 1-113.0% | 1.26-1.18 | Home38.3% | 2.61 · 3.64 · 2.92 |
| 15:00time provisional | Colchester United vs Exeter CityEFL League Two | 39.4% | 27.1% | 33.6% | 1-112.8% | 1.31-1.18 | Home39.4% | 2.54 · 3.70 · 2.98 |
| 15:00time provisional | Crewe Alexandra vs RochdaleEFL League Two | 33.3% | 26.7% | 40.0% | 1-112.7% | 1.20-1.34 | Away40.0% | 3.01 · 3.74 · 2.50 |
| 15:00time provisional | Grimsby Town vs Northampton TownEFL League Two | 56.6% | 23.4% | 20.0% | 1-011.7% | 1.76-0.95 | Home56.6% | 1.77 · 4.27 · 4.99 |
| 15:00time provisional | Newport County vs York CityEFL League Two | 24.2% | 24.4% | 51.4% | 1-111.6% | 1.06-1.66 | Away51.4% | 4.13 · 4.09 · 1.95 |
| 15:00time provisional | Oldham Athletic vs Cheltenham TownEFL League Two | 56.0% | 23.9% | 20.1% | 1-012.3% | 1.71-0.92 | Home56.0% | 1.78 · 4.19 · 4.98 |
| 15:00time provisional | Port Vale vs ChesterfieldEFL League Two | 32.3% | 26.1% | 41.6% | 1-112.4% | 1.22-1.41 | Away41.6% | 3.09 · 3.83 · 2.41 |
| 15:00time provisional | Salford City vs Crawley TownEFL League Two | 62.7% | 21.1% | 16.1% | 1-011.3% | 1.97-0.89 | Home62.7% | 1.59 · 4.73 · 6.20 |
| 15:00time provisional | Swindon Town vs WalsallEFL League Two | 46.2% | 25.1% | 28.7% | 1-111.9% | 1.56-1.18 | Home46.2% | 2.17 · 3.98 · 3.48 |
| 15:00time provisional | Tranmere Rovers vs BarnetEFL League Two | 17.6% | 21.9% | 60.4% | 0-111.3% | 0.92-1.90 | Away60.4% | 5.67 · 4.56 · 1.65 |
Premier League
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30confirmed schedule | Everton vs ChelseaPremier League | 36.0% | 27.0% | 37.0% | 1-112.7% | 1.41-1.43 | Away37.0% | 2.78 · 3.71 · 2.70 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Brentford vs LiverpoolPremier League | 34.6% | 26.6% | 38.9% | 1-112.4% | 1.41-1.50 | Away38.9% | 2.89 · 3.77 · 2.57 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Fulham vs Hull CityPremier League | 51.7% | 25.4% | 22.9% | 1-112.1% | 1.74-1.09 | Home51.7% | 1.93 · 3.93 · 4.37 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Manchester City vs Ipswich TownPremier League | 70.5% | 17.7% | 11.8% | 2-09.8% | 2.52-0.96 | Home70.5% | 1.42 · 5.65 · 8.50 |
| 17:30confirmed schedule | Newcastle United vs Aston VillaPremier League | 47.0% | 26.2% | 26.8% | 1-112.4% | 1.65-1.20 | Home47.0% | 2.13 · 3.82 · 3.72 |
Bundesliga
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30time provisional | 1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia DortmundBundesliga | 19.3% | 22.0% | 58.7% | 1-110.1% | 1.11-2.08 | Away58.7% | 5.18 · 4.55 · 1.70 |
| 14:30time provisional | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Sport-Club FreiburgBundesliga | 64.3% | 19.6% | 16.1% | 2-19.5% | 2.35-1.10 | Home64.3% | 1.56 · 5.09 · 6.21 |
| 14:30time provisional | Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG HoffenheimBundesliga | 41.4% | 24.5% | 34.1% | 1-110.8% | 1.72-1.54 | Home41.4% | 2.42 · 4.09 · 2.93 |
| 14:30time provisional | Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC KölnBundesliga | 58.1% | 21.8% | 20.1% | 1-19.8% | 2.12-1.17 | Home58.1% | 1.72 · 4.59 · 4.98 |
| 14:30time provisional | FC Bayern München vs RB LeipzigBundesliga | 59.3% | 21.1% | 19.6% | 2-19.5% | 2.22-1.21 | Home59.3% | 1.68 · 4.74 · 5.11 |
| 14:30time provisional | FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga | 35.1% | 25.5% | 39.4% | 1-111.7% | 1.47-1.57 | Away39.4% | 2.85 · 3.92 · 2.54 |
| 14:30time provisional | Hamburger SV vs VfB StuttgartBundesliga | 28.8% | 23.7% | 47.4% | 1-110.4% | 1.43-1.88 | Away47.4% | 3.47 · 4.21 · 2.11 |
| 14:30time provisional | SV Elversberg vs FC AugsburgBundesliga | 43.1% | 25.0% | 31.9% | 1-111.4% | 1.68-1.42 | Home43.1% | 2.32 · 3.99 · 3.14 |
| 14:30time provisional | SV Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga | 41.5% | 24.9% | 33.6% | 1-111.2% | 1.67-1.48 | Home41.5% | 2.41 · 4.02 · 2.98 |
Ligue 1
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:15time provisional | RC Strasbourg Alsace vs Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1 | 27.8% | 23.0% | 49.2% | 1-110.7% | 1.24-1.73 | Away49.2% | 3.59 · 4.35 · 2.03 |
| 19:45time provisional | Estac Troyes vs RC LensLigue 1 | 24.0% | 23.0% | 53.0% | 1-110.9% | 1.09-1.74 | Away53.0% | 4.17 · 4.34 · 1.89 |
| 19:45time provisional | LOSC Lille vs Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1 | 65.8% | 19.2% | 15.0% | 2-011.1% | 2.11-0.90 | Home65.8% | 1.52 · 5.21 · 6.67 |
Dated evidence
Fixture status, model version and update date are published beside the board.
No odds in the model
Bookmaker prices never change the core sporting forecast.
No synthetic fixtures
Model-draw and format-only UEFA pairings are excluded from daily listings.
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