Everton vs Chelsea prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Chelsea win the strongest outcome at 38.8%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
EvertonEVE50.2 projected points
ChelseaCHE64.1 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Everton vs Chelsea scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.9%
8.6%
8.0%
7.9%
7.3%
Everton 1.34 · Chelsea 1.45
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
27.7% to 39.4%
The Everton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
12 vs 3
Current mean projected league positions for Everton and Chelsea.
Matchweek 7
Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 12:30 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.39 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.016 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.015 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.029 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Everton vs Chelsea prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Everton vs Chelsea?
Chelsea win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 38.8%. The draw is 27.2%.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Chelsea?
The most likely exact score is Everton 1-1 Chelsea, with an estimated probability of 12.9%.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Chelsea?
The model gives both teams to score a 57.5% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 52.9% probability.
When is Everton vs Chelsea?
Everton vs Chelsea is scheduled for Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 12:30 UK time.