Probabilities, not picks
Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.
19 verified-schedule fixtures are listed across 3 competitions on Sunday, 18 October 2026. The highest single 1X2 probability is Real Madrid win at 75.3%; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Probabilities are generated independently of bookmaker prices. Fair odds are the decimal inverse of the model probability and do not include a safety margin. 15 listed kick-off times are provisional.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00time provisional | CA Osasuna vs R. Racing ClubLa Liga | 58.6% | 22.9% | 18.5% | 1-012.1% | 1.80-0.90 | Home58.6% | 1.71 · 4.37 · 5.41 |
| 01:00time provisional | Celta vs Deportivo AlavésLa Liga | 53.1% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 1-012.0% | 1.64-0.97 | Home53.1% | 1.88 · 4.07 · 4.47 |
| 01:00time provisional | Getafe CF vs Rayo VallecanoLa Liga | 40.2% | 28.7% | 31.1% | 1-113.3% | 1.21-1.02 | Home40.2% | 2.49 · 3.48 · 3.22 |
| 01:00time provisional | Málaga CF vs Real SociedadLa Liga | 43.4% | 26.1% | 30.5% | 1-112.4% | 1.44-1.16 | Home43.4% | 2.30 · 3.84 · 3.27 |
| 01:00time provisional | RC Deportivo vs Levante UDLa Liga | 57.6% | 22.8% | 19.6% | 1-011.4% | 1.82-0.96 | Home57.6% | 1.73 · 4.38 · 5.11 |
| 01:00time provisional | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs Atlético de MadridLa Liga | 28.3% | 25.5% | 46.2% | 1-112.1% | 1.13-1.52 | Away46.2% | 3.54 · 3.92 · 2.17 |
| 01:00time provisional | Real Betis vs FC BarcelonaLa Liga | 29.6% | 25.0% | 45.4% | 1-111.9% | 1.21-1.55 | Away45.4% | 3.38 · 3.99 · 2.20 |
| 01:00time provisional | Real Madrid vs Sevilla FCLa Liga | 75.3% | 15.6% | 9.1% | 2-012.5% | 2.46-0.73 | Home75.3% | 1.33 · 6.42 · 11.01 |
| 01:00time provisional | Valencia CF vs Athletic ClubLa Liga | 45.9% | 25.9% | 28.2% | 1-112.3% | 1.48-1.10 | Home45.9% | 2.18 · 3.86 · 3.55 |
| 01:00time provisional | Villarreal CF vs Elche CFLa Liga | 64.5% | 20.1% | 15.4% | 2-011.0% | 2.07-0.90 | Home64.5% | 1.55 · 4.97 · 6.51 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00time provisional | Angers SCO vs Olympique de MarseilleLigue 1 | 19.0% | 21.1% | 59.9% | 0-110.3% | 1.00-1.95 | Away59.9% | 5.25 · 4.75 · 1.67 |
| 16:15time provisional | FC Lorient vs AS MonacoLigue 1 | 32.0% | 23.2% | 44.8% | 1-110.7% | 1.38-1.66 | Away44.8% | 3.12 · 4.31 · 2.23 |
| 16:15time provisional | Havre Athletic Club vs AJ AuxerreLigue 1 | 23.6% | 22.8% | 53.6% | 1-110.8% | 1.09-1.77 | Away53.6% | 4.24 · 4.39 · 1.87 |
| 16:15time provisional | Paris FC vs Stade Rennais FCLigue 1 | 41.5% | 24.0% | 34.5% | 1-111.2% | 1.53-1.37 | Home41.5% | 2.41 · 4.16 · 2.90 |
| 19:45time provisional | Olympique Lyonnais vs OGC NiceLigue 1 | 57.4% | 21.7% | 20.9% | 1-110.2% | 1.88-1.05 | Home57.4% | 1.74 · 4.61 · 4.78 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00confirmed schedule | AFC Bournemouth vs SunderlandPremier League | 56.4% | 23.9% | 19.7% | 1-111.3% | 1.89-1.04 | Home56.4% | 1.77 · 4.18 · 5.08 |
| 14:00confirmed schedule | Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal PalacePremier League | 49.3% | 24.4% | 26.3% | 1-111.1% | 1.85-1.31 | Home49.3% | 2.03 · 4.10 · 3.80 |
| 14:00confirmed schedule | Leeds United vs Manchester UnitedPremier League | 34.6% | 26.8% | 38.6% | 1-112.7% | 1.38-1.47 | Away38.6% | 2.89 · 3.73 · 2.59 |
| 16:30confirmed schedule | Nottingham Forest vs ArsenalPremier League | 26.1% | 28.4% | 45.5% | 1-113.5% | 1.04-1.45 | Away45.5% | 3.83 · 3.53 · 2.20 |
Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.
Fixture status, model version and update date are published beside the board.
Bookmaker prices never change the core sporting forecast.
Model-draw and format-only UEFA pairings are excluded from daily listings.
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