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THE PROBABILITY DESK · SUNDAY, 18 OCTOBER 2026

Football predictions on Sunday, 18 October 2026

19 verified-schedule fixtures are listed across 3 competitions on Sunday, 18 October 2026. The highest single 1X2 probability is Real Madrid win at 75.3%; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

VERIFIED FIXTURES19
COMPETITIONS3
CONFIRMED 3PM0
MODEL PATHS100,000
EVERY SUPPORTED COMPETITION

Sunday, 18 October 2026 football predictions

Probabilities are generated independently of bookmaker prices. Fair odds are the decimal inverse of the model probability and do not include a safety margin. 15 listed kick-off times are provisional.

Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
01:00time provisionalCA Osasuna vs R. Racing ClubLa Liga58.6%22.9%18.5%1-012.1%1.80-0.90Home58.6%1.71 · 4.37 · 5.41
01:00time provisionalCelta vs Deportivo AlavésLa Liga53.1%24.5%22.4%1-012.0%1.64-0.97Home53.1%1.88 · 4.07 · 4.47
01:00time provisionalGetafe CF vs Rayo VallecanoLa Liga40.2%28.7%31.1%1-113.3%1.21-1.02Home40.2%2.49 · 3.48 · 3.22
01:00time provisionalMálaga CF vs Real SociedadLa Liga43.4%26.1%30.5%1-112.4%1.44-1.16Home43.4%2.30 · 3.84 · 3.27
01:00time provisionalRC Deportivo vs Levante UDLa Liga57.6%22.8%19.6%1-011.4%1.82-0.96Home57.6%1.73 · 4.38 · 5.11
01:00time provisionalRCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs Atlético de MadridLa Liga28.3%25.5%46.2%1-112.1%1.13-1.52Away46.2%3.54 · 3.92 · 2.17
01:00time provisionalReal Betis vs FC BarcelonaLa Liga29.6%25.0%45.4%1-111.9%1.21-1.55Away45.4%3.38 · 3.99 · 2.20
01:00time provisionalReal Madrid vs Sevilla FCLa Liga75.3%15.6%9.1%2-012.5%2.46-0.73Home75.3%1.33 · 6.42 · 11.01
01:00time provisionalValencia CF vs Athletic ClubLa Liga45.9%25.9%28.2%1-112.3%1.48-1.10Home45.9%2.18 · 3.86 · 3.55
01:00time provisionalVillarreal CF vs Elche CFLa Liga64.5%20.1%15.4%2-011.0%2.07-0.90Home64.5%1.55 · 4.97 · 6.51
Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
14:00time provisionalAngers SCO vs Olympique de MarseilleLigue 119.0%21.1%59.9%0-110.3%1.00-1.95Away59.9%5.25 · 4.75 · 1.67
16:15time provisionalFC Lorient vs AS MonacoLigue 132.0%23.2%44.8%1-110.7%1.38-1.66Away44.8%3.12 · 4.31 · 2.23
16:15time provisionalHavre Athletic Club vs AJ AuxerreLigue 123.6%22.8%53.6%1-110.8%1.09-1.77Away53.6%4.24 · 4.39 · 1.87
16:15time provisionalParis FC vs Stade Rennais FCLigue 141.5%24.0%34.5%1-111.2%1.53-1.37Home41.5%2.41 · 4.16 · 2.90
19:45time provisionalOlympique Lyonnais vs OGC NiceLigue 157.4%21.7%20.9%1-110.2%1.88-1.05Home57.4%1.74 · 4.61 · 4.78
Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
14:00confirmed scheduleAFC Bournemouth vs SunderlandPremier League56.4%23.9%19.7%1-111.3%1.89-1.04Home56.4%1.77 · 4.18 · 5.08
14:00confirmed scheduleBrighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal PalacePremier League49.3%24.4%26.3%1-111.1%1.85-1.31Home49.3%2.03 · 4.10 · 3.80
14:00confirmed scheduleLeeds United vs Manchester UnitedPremier League34.6%26.8%38.6%1-112.7%1.38-1.47Away38.6%2.89 · 3.73 · 2.59
16:30confirmed scheduleNottingham Forest vs ArsenalPremier League26.1%28.4%45.5%1-113.5%1.04-1.45Away45.5%3.83 · 3.53 · 2.20
DIRECT ANSWER

Probabilities, not picks

Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.

FRESHNESS

Dated evidence

Fixture status, model version and update date are published beside the board.

SEPARATION

No odds in the model

Bookmaker prices never change the core sporting forecast.

PROVENANCE

No synthetic fixtures

Model-draw and format-only UEFA pairings are excluded from daily listings.

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