AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes AFC Bournemouth win the strongest outcome at 59.0%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
AFC BournemouthBOU51.4 projected points
SunderlandSUN38.8 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Bournemouth vs Sunderland scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.8%
10.0%
9.8%
9.0%
6.6%
Bournemouth 1.99 · Sunderland 1.02
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
53.8% to 64.2%
The Bournemouth home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
11 vs 19
Current mean projected league positions for Bournemouth and Sunderland.
Matchweek 7
Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 14:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
+0.38 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.027 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.062 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.013 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Bournemouth vs Sunderland prediction questions
Who is predicted to win AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
AFC Bournemouth win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 59.0%. The draw is 22.9%.
What is the predicted score for AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
The most likely exact score is AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland, with an estimated probability of 10.8%.
Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
The model gives both teams to score a 56.0% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 57.8% probability.
When is AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland is scheduled for Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 14:00 UK time.