Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 47.7%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Nottingham ForestNFO49.9 projected points
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.8%
9.8%
9.4%
8.5%
7.7%
Nott'm Forest 1.11 · Arsenal 1.59
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
22.7% to 31.8%
The Nott'm Forest home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
13 vs 1
Current mean projected league positions for Nott'm Forest and Arsenal.
Matchweek 7
Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 16:30 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.55 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.047 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.102 goal-rate signal
Recent results
-0.035 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 47.7%. The draw is 26.9%.
What is the predicted score for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
The most likely exact score is Nottingham Forest 1-1 Arsenal, with an estimated probability of 12.8%.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
The model gives both teams to score a 54.2% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 50.6% probability.
When is Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal is scheduled for Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 16:30 UK time.