Newcastle United vs Aston Villa prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Newcastle United win the strongest outcome at 45.7%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Newcastle UnitedNEW54.1 projected points
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Newcastle vs Aston Villa scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
11.5%
9.3%
7.2%
7.0%
6.8%
Newcastle 1.74 · Aston Villa 1.36
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
39.7% to 51.2%
The Newcastle home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
9 vs 8
Current mean projected league positions for Newcastle and Aston Villa.
Matchweek 7
Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 17:30 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.04 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.036 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.084 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.105 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Newcastle United win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 45.7%. The draw is 25.1%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
The most likely exact score is Newcastle United 1-1 Aston Villa, with an estimated probability of 11.5%.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
The model gives both teams to score a 62.1% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 59.8% probability.
When is Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa is scheduled for Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 17:30 UK time.