Probabilities, not picks
Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.
Football predictions on Saturday, 19 September 2026
49 verified-schedule fixtures are listed across 6 competitions on Saturday, 19 September 2026. The highest single 1X2 probability is Manchester City win at 71.8%; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
VERIFIED FIXTURES49
COMPETITIONS6
CONFIRMED 3PM5
MODEL PATHS100,000
CONFIRMED SATURDAY 3PM KICK-OFFS
The 3pm probability board
Only fixtures with an explicitly confirmed 15:00 UK kick-off are included here. Provisional EFL times remain in the competition sections below and are clearly labelled.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Brighton & Hove Albion vs ArsenalPremier League | 25.9% | 25.9% | 48.2% | 1-112.3% | 1.18-1.68 | Away48.2% | 3.86 · 3.86 · 2.08 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Everton vs Ipswich TownPremier League | 49.4% | 26.2% | 24.4% | 1-112.5% | 1.66-1.11 | Home49.4% | 2.02 · 3.82 · 4.09 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Leeds United vs Crystal PalacePremier League | 52.7% | 25.1% | 22.2% | 1-111.9% | 1.78-1.09 | Home52.7% | 1.90 · 3.99 · 4.50 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Manchester City vs SunderlandPremier League | 71.8% | 17.1% | 11.0% | 2-09.9% | 2.58-0.94 | Home71.8% | 1.39 · 5.83 · 9.06 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Newcastle United vs Hull CityPremier League | 63.2% | 21.7% | 15.1% | 2-010.7% | 2.08-0.93 | Home63.2% | 1.58 · 4.60 · 6.62 |
EVERY SUPPORTED COMPETITION
Saturday, 19 September 2026 football predictions
Probabilities are generated independently of bookmaker prices. Fair odds are the decimal inverse of the model probability and do not include a safety margin. 33 listed kick-off times are provisional.
EFL Championship
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Cardiff City vs Charlton AthleticEFL Championship | 49.0% | 25.5% | 25.5% | 1-112.1% | 1.54-1.03 | Home49.0% | 2.04 · 3.92 · 3.93 |
| 12:30time provisional | Millwall vs West Ham UnitedEFL Championship | 42.3% | 27.1% | 30.6% | 1-112.8% | 1.34-1.10 | Home42.3% | 2.36 · 3.69 · 3.27 |
| 12:30time provisional | Stoke City vs Sheffield UnitedEFL Championship | 30.3% | 26.7% | 43.1% | 1-112.7% | 1.12-1.38 | Away43.1% | 3.30 · 3.75 · 2.32 |
| 15:00time provisional | Birmingham City vs MiddlesbroughEFL Championship | 39.4% | 26.6% | 34.0% | 1-112.6% | 1.33-1.22 | Home39.4% | 2.54 · 3.76 · 2.94 |
| 15:00time provisional | Burnley vs Derby CountyEFL Championship | 40.6% | 27.0% | 32.4% | 1-112.8% | 1.33-1.16 | Home40.6% | 2.46 · 3.71 · 3.08 |
| 15:00time provisional | Lincoln City vs Swansea CityEFL Championship | 44.4% | 26.3% | 29.3% | 1-112.5% | 1.44-1.11 | Home44.4% | 2.25 · 3.81 · 3.41 |
| 15:00time provisional | Norwich City vs Bolton WanderersEFL Championship | 55.3% | 23.4% | 21.2% | 1-011.2% | 1.76-0.99 | Home55.3% | 1.81 · 4.27 · 4.71 |
| 15:00time provisional | Portsmouth vs Blackburn RoversEFL Championship | 45.9% | 26.5% | 27.6% | 1-112.6% | 1.43-1.05 | Home45.9% | 2.18 · 3.77 · 3.62 |
| 15:00time provisional | Queens Park Rangers vs Preston North EndEFL Championship | 42.8% | 26.5% | 30.7% | 1-112.6% | 1.39-1.14 | Home42.8% | 2.34 · 3.77 · 3.26 |
| 15:00time provisional | Wrexham vs SouthamptonEFL Championship | 38.8% | 25.7% | 35.5% | 1-112.2% | 1.39-1.32 | Home38.8% | 2.58 · 3.89 · 2.82 |
EFL League One
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Barnsley vs Leicester CityEFL League One | 36.3% | 24.5% | 39.2% | 1-111.6% | 1.35-1.42 | Away39.2% | 2.76 · 4.08 · 2.55 |
| 12:30time provisional | Burton Albion vs Mansfield TownEFL League One | 28.9% | 25.0% | 46.1% | 1-111.9% | 1.12-1.48 | Away46.1% | 3.46 · 4.00 · 2.17 |
| 15:00time provisional | Blackpool vs Plymouth ArgyleEFL League One | 36.5% | 24.7% | 38.8% | 1-111.7% | 1.34-1.39 | Away38.8% | 2.74 · 4.04 · 2.58 |
| 15:00time provisional | Bromley vs Huddersfield TownEFL League One | 39.0% | 25.3% | 35.7% | 1-112.0% | 1.34-1.28 | Home39.0% | 2.57 · 3.95 · 2.80 |
| 15:00time provisional | Leyton Orient vs StevenageEFL League One | 36.1% | 26.8% | 37.1% | 1-112.6% | 1.18-1.20 | Away37.1% | 2.77 · 3.73 · 2.70 |
| 15:00time provisional | Luton Town vs Bradford CityEFL League One | 51.0% | 24.3% | 24.7% | 1-011.9% | 1.58-1.02 | Home51.0% | 1.96 · 4.12 · 4.05 |
| 15:00time provisional | Oxford United vs Cambridge UnitedEFL League One | 52.0% | 24.1% | 23.9% | 1-012.0% | 1.60-1.00 | Home52.0% | 1.92 · 4.15 · 4.18 |
| 15:00time provisional | Peterborough United vs Doncaster RoversEFL League One | 38.6% | 24.5% | 37.0% | 1-111.6% | 1.41-1.37 | Home38.6% | 2.59 · 4.08 · 2.71 |
| 15:00time provisional | Reading vs Notts CountyEFL League One | 46.3% | 24.2% | 29.5% | 1-111.5% | 1.55-1.19 | Home46.3% | 2.16 · 4.13 · 3.39 |
| 15:00time provisional | Sheffield Wednesday vs Stockport CountyEFL League One | 31.1% | 25.0% | 43.9% | 1-111.9% | 1.18-1.45 | Away43.9% | 3.21 · 4.00 · 2.28 |
| 15:00time provisional | Wigan Athletic vs Wycombe WanderersEFL League One | 38.2% | 26.4% | 35.5% | 1-112.5% | 1.25-1.20 | Home38.2% | 2.62 · 3.79 · 2.82 |
EFL League Two
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30time provisional | Rochdale vs Oldham AthleticEFL League Two | 45.0% | 26.6% | 28.4% | 1-112.6% | 1.42-1.07 | Home45.0% | 2.22 · 3.76 · 3.53 |
| 12:30time provisional | Walsall vs Port ValeEFL League Two | 34.9% | 26.8% | 38.3% | 1-112.7% | 1.23-1.30 | Away38.3% | 2.87 · 3.73 · 2.61 |
| 15:00time provisional | Accrington Stanley vs Newport CountyEFL League Two | 37.0% | 26.4% | 36.6% | 1-112.6% | 1.31-1.30 | Home37.0% | 2.70 · 3.79 · 2.73 |
| 15:00time provisional | Barnet vs Fleetwood TownEFL League Two | 59.3% | 22.3% | 18.4% | 1-011.4% | 1.87-0.93 | Home59.3% | 1.69 · 4.47 · 5.44 |
| 15:00time provisional | Chesterfield vs York CityEFL League Two | 45.8% | 25.2% | 29.0% | 1-112.0% | 1.55-1.18 | Home45.8% | 2.19 · 3.97 · 3.44 |
| 15:00time provisional | Colchester United vs Cheltenham TownEFL League Two | 53.3% | 24.5% | 22.2% | 1-011.9% | 1.66-0.97 | Home53.3% | 1.88 · 4.08 · 4.51 |
| 15:00time provisional | Crewe Alexandra vs Shrewsbury TownEFL League Two | 53.4% | 24.9% | 21.7% | 1-012.7% | 1.61-0.93 | Home53.4% | 1.87 · 4.01 · 4.61 |
| 15:00time provisional | Exeter City vs Tranmere RoversEFL League Two | 60.2% | 22.4% | 17.4% | 1-012.0% | 1.85-0.88 | Home60.2% | 1.66 · 4.47 · 5.74 |
| 15:00time provisional | Gillingham vs Bristol RoversEFL League Two | 24.7% | 25.9% | 49.5% | 0-112.3% | 0.99-1.52 | Away49.5% | 4.05 · 3.87 · 2.02 |
| 15:00time provisional | Grimsby Town vs Crawley TownEFL League Two | 62.8% | 21.1% | 16.1% | 1-011.2% | 1.98-0.89 | Home62.8% | 1.59 · 4.75 · 6.19 |
| 15:00time provisional | Northampton Town vs Rotherham UnitedEFL League Two | 37.5% | 26.9% | 35.6% | 1-112.8% | 1.28-1.24 | Home37.5% | 2.67 · 3.72 · 2.81 |
| 15:00time provisional | Salford City vs Swindon TownEFL League Two | 52.1% | 23.9% | 24.0% | 1-111.3% | 1.72-1.09 | Home52.1% | 1.92 · 4.18 · 4.17 |
Premier League
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30confirmed schedule | Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston VillaPremier League | 40.2% | 24.8% | 35.0% | 1-111.1% | 1.68-1.56 | Home40.2% | 2.49 · 4.03 · 2.86 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Brighton & Hove Albion vs ArsenalPremier League | 25.9% | 25.9% | 48.2% | 1-112.3% | 1.18-1.68 | Away48.2% | 3.86 · 3.86 · 2.08 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Everton vs Ipswich TownPremier League | 49.4% | 26.2% | 24.4% | 1-112.5% | 1.66-1.11 | Home49.4% | 2.02 · 3.82 · 4.09 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Leeds United vs Crystal PalacePremier League | 52.7% | 25.1% | 22.2% | 1-111.9% | 1.78-1.09 | Home52.7% | 1.90 · 3.99 · 4.50 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Manchester City vs SunderlandPremier League | 71.8% | 17.1% | 11.0% | 2-09.9% | 2.58-0.94 | Home71.8% | 1.39 · 5.83 · 9.06 |
| 15:00confirmed schedule | Newcastle United vs Hull CityPremier League | 63.2% | 21.7% | 15.1% | 2-010.7% | 2.08-0.93 | Home63.2% | 1.58 · 4.60 · 6.62 |
| 17:30confirmed schedule | Nottingham Forest vs Coventry CityPremier League | 61.8% | 22.8% | 15.3% | 2-011.3% | 1.96-0.88 | Home61.8% | 1.62 · 4.38 · 6.51 |
Serie A
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00confirmed schedule | Bologna vs TorinoSerie A | 49.1% | 26.2% | 24.7% | 1-112.4% | 1.52-1.00 | Home49.1% | 2.04 · 3.81 · 4.05 |
| 14:00confirmed schedule | Udinese vs CagliariSerie A | 46.9% | 26.4% | 26.6% | 1-112.6% | 1.49-1.06 | Home46.9% | 2.13 · 3.78 · 3.76 |
| 17:00confirmed schedule | Roma vs InterSerie A | 34.3% | 26.9% | 38.8% | 1-112.8% | 1.25-1.34 | Away38.8% | 2.92 · 3.72 · 2.58 |
| 19:45confirmed schedule | Venezia vs LazioSerie A | 31.2% | 26.9% | 41.9% | 1-112.8% | 1.17-1.40 | Away41.9% | 3.20 · 3.72 · 2.39 |
Bundesliga
Full competition forecast →| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30confirmed schedule | Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga | 40.3% | 25.5% | 34.2% | 1-111.7% | 1.59-1.45 | Home40.3% | 2.48 · 3.92 · 2.93 |
| 14:30confirmed schedule | Eintracht Frankfurt vs Sport-Club FreiburgBundesliga | 46.8% | 24.0% | 29.2% | 1-110.6% | 1.84-1.42 | Home46.8% | 2.14 · 4.17 · 3.43 |
| 14:30confirmed schedule | Hamburger SV vs 1. FC KölnBundesliga | 55.1% | 22.7% | 22.1% | 1-110.3% | 2.02-1.21 | Home55.1% | 1.81 · 4.40 · 4.52 |
| 14:30confirmed schedule | SV Werder Bremen vs FC AugsburgBundesliga | 40.3% | 25.5% | 34.2% | 1-111.7% | 1.59-1.44 | Home40.3% | 2.48 · 3.92 · 2.93 |
| 17:30confirmed schedule | VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia DortmundBundesliga | 37.8% | 24.4% | 37.8% | 1-110.7% | 1.65-1.65 | Away37.8% | 2.65 · 4.10 · 2.65 |
Dated evidence
Fixture status, model version and update date are published beside the board.
No odds in the model
Bookmaker prices never change the core sporting forecast.
No synthetic fixtures
Model-draw and format-only UEFA pairings are excluded from daily listings.