Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Tottenham Hotspur win the strongest outcome at 41.8%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Tottenham HotspurTOT49.8 projected points
Aston VillaAVL55 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Tottenham vs Aston Villa scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
10.8%
8.7%
7.8%
6.8%
5.6%
Tottenham 1.75 · Aston Villa 1.56
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
35.1% to 50.8%
The Tottenham home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
14 vs 8
Current mean projected league positions for Tottenham and Aston Villa.
Matchweek 5
Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 12:30 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.22 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
-0.019 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.066 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.015 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Tottenham vs Aston Villa prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?
Tottenham Hotspur win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 41.8%. The draw is 24.5%.
What is the predicted score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?
The most likely exact score is Tottenham Hotspur 1-1 Aston Villa, with an estimated probability of 10.8%.
Will both teams score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?
The model gives both teams to score a 66.0% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 64.1% probability.
When is Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?
Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa is scheduled for Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 12:30 UK time.