Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes Arsenal win the strongest outcome at 48.2%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
Brighton & Hove AlbionBHA55.2 projected points
ArsenalARS73.6 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Brighton vs Arsenal scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.3%
9.5%
8.7%
8.1%
6.7%
Brighton 1.18 · Arsenal 1.68
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
23.3% to 33.6%
The Brighton home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
7 vs 1
Current mean projected league positions for Brighton and Arsenal.
Matchweek 5
Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.54 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.032 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
-0.185 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.074 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Brighton vs Arsenal prediction questions
Who is predicted to win Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal?
Arsenal win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 48.2%. The draw is 25.9%.
What is the predicted score for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal?
The most likely exact score is Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 Arsenal, with an estimated probability of 12.3%.
Will both teams score in Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal?
The model gives both teams to score a 57.3% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 54.5% probability.
When is Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal?
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal is scheduled for Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:00 UK time.