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THE PROBABILITY DESK · SUNDAY, 20 SEPTEMBER 2026

Football predictions on Sunday, 20 September 2026

21 verified-schedule fixtures are listed across 5 competitions on Sunday, 20 September 2026. The highest single 1X2 probability is Villarreal CF win at 77.4%; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

VERIFIED FIXTURES21
COMPETITIONS5
CONFIRMED 3PM0
MODEL PATHS100,000
EVERY SUPPORTED COMPETITION

Sunday, 20 September 2026 football predictions

Probabilities are generated independently of bookmaker prices. Fair odds are the decimal inverse of the model probability and do not include a safety margin. 11 listed kick-off times are provisional.

Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
01:00time provisionalAthletic Club vs Deportivo AlavésLa Liga55.0%24.2%20.8%1-012.4%1.68-0.93Home55.0%1.82 · 4.13 · 4.81
01:00time provisionalAtlético de Madrid vs Real MadridLa Liga33.9%25.6%40.5%1-112.1%1.29-1.43Away40.5%2.95 · 3.90 · 2.47
01:00time provisionalCA Osasuna vs Rayo VallecanoLa Liga35.0%27.6%37.4%1-113.0%1.18-1.23Away37.4%2.86 · 3.62 · 2.68
01:00time provisionalCelta vs R. Racing ClubLa Liga68.9%18.6%12.4%2-012.1%2.18-0.80Home68.9%1.45 · 5.37 · 8.05
01:00time provisionalGetafe CF vs Málaga CFLa Liga45.7%27.0%27.3%1-112.7%1.39-1.01Home45.7%2.19 · 3.70 · 3.67
01:00time provisionalRC Deportivo vs Real BetisLa Liga30.6%25.7%43.7%1-112.2%1.19-1.48Away43.7%3.26 · 3.90 · 2.29
01:00time provisionalRCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs Elche CFLa Liga43.8%26.3%29.9%1-112.5%1.43-1.13Home43.8%2.28 · 3.81 · 3.34
01:00time provisionalSevilla FC vs FC BarcelonaLa Liga18.3%21.8%59.9%0-110.8%0.96-1.92Away59.9%5.46 · 4.60 · 1.67
01:00time provisionalValencia CF vs Real SociedadLa Liga50.2%25.2%24.6%1-112.0%1.57-1.02Home50.2%1.99 · 3.96 · 4.07
01:00time provisionalVillarreal CF vs Levante UDLa Liga77.4%14.4%8.3%2-012.0%2.60-0.74Home77.4%1.29 · 6.96 · 12.12
Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
11:30confirmed scheduleFiorentina vs NapoliSerie A27.9%26.6%45.6%1-112.6%1.09-1.47Away45.6%3.59 · 3.76 · 2.20
14:00confirmed scheduleFrosinone vs ComoSerie A25.1%25.6%49.3%1-112.2%1.05-1.58Away49.3%3.98 · 3.90 · 2.03
14:00confirmed scheduleParma vs GenoaSerie A40.7%28.1%31.2%1-113.2%1.29-1.10Home40.7%2.46 · 3.56 · 3.20
17:00confirmed scheduleJuventus vs AtalantaSerie A44.3%26.7%29.0%1-112.7%1.44-1.11Home44.3%2.26 · 3.74 · 3.45
19:45confirmed scheduleMilan vs LecceSerie A59.9%23.4%16.7%1-013.2%1.78-0.81Home59.9%1.67 · 4.28 · 5.98
Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
12:00time provisionalWolverhampton Wanderers vs West Bromwich AlbionEFL Championship43.1%27.1%29.8%1-112.8%1.36-1.08Home43.1%2.32 · 3.69 · 3.35
Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
14:00confirmed scheduleAFC Bournemouth vs LiverpoolPremier League38.4%26.1%35.4%1-112.1%1.53-1.46Home38.4%2.60 · 3.83 · 2.82
16:30confirmed scheduleFulham vs Manchester UnitedPremier League33.8%25.9%40.3%1-111.9%1.44-1.59Away40.3%2.96 · 3.87 · 2.48
Kick-offFixtureHomeDrawAwayLikely scorexGStrongestFair odds
14:30confirmed scheduleBayer 04 Leverkusen vs RB LeipzigBundesliga48.7%23.8%27.5%1-110.5%1.89-1.37Home48.7%2.05 · 4.21 · 3.64
16:30confirmed scheduleFC Schalke 04 vs SV ElversbergBundesliga45.8%24.3%29.9%1-110.9%1.79-1.41Home45.8%2.18 · 4.11 · 3.35
18:30confirmed scheduleSC Paderborn 07 vs TSG HoffenheimBundesliga34.7%24.3%40.9%1-110.6%1.57-1.72Away40.9%2.88 · 4.11 · 2.44
DIRECT ANSWER

Probabilities, not picks

Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.

FRESHNESS

Dated evidence

Fixture status, model version and update date are published beside the board.

SEPARATION

No odds in the model

Bookmaker prices never change the core sporting forecast.

PROVENANCE

No synthetic fixtures

Model-draw and format-only UEFA pairings are excluded from daily listings.