Probabilities, not picks
Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.
21 verified-schedule fixtures are listed across 5 competitions on Sunday, 20 September 2026. The highest single 1X2 probability is Villarreal CF win at 77.4%; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Probabilities are generated independently of bookmaker prices. Fair odds are the decimal inverse of the model probability and do not include a safety margin. 11 listed kick-off times are provisional.
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00time provisional | Athletic Club vs Deportivo AlavésLa Liga | 55.0% | 24.2% | 20.8% | 1-012.4% | 1.68-0.93 | Home55.0% | 1.82 · 4.13 · 4.81 |
| 01:00time provisional | Atlético de Madrid vs Real MadridLa Liga | 33.9% | 25.6% | 40.5% | 1-112.1% | 1.29-1.43 | Away40.5% | 2.95 · 3.90 · 2.47 |
| 01:00time provisional | CA Osasuna vs Rayo VallecanoLa Liga | 35.0% | 27.6% | 37.4% | 1-113.0% | 1.18-1.23 | Away37.4% | 2.86 · 3.62 · 2.68 |
| 01:00time provisional | Celta vs R. Racing ClubLa Liga | 68.9% | 18.6% | 12.4% | 2-012.1% | 2.18-0.80 | Home68.9% | 1.45 · 5.37 · 8.05 |
| 01:00time provisional | Getafe CF vs Málaga CFLa Liga | 45.7% | 27.0% | 27.3% | 1-112.7% | 1.39-1.01 | Home45.7% | 2.19 · 3.70 · 3.67 |
| 01:00time provisional | RC Deportivo vs Real BetisLa Liga | 30.6% | 25.7% | 43.7% | 1-112.2% | 1.19-1.48 | Away43.7% | 3.26 · 3.90 · 2.29 |
| 01:00time provisional | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs Elche CFLa Liga | 43.8% | 26.3% | 29.9% | 1-112.5% | 1.43-1.13 | Home43.8% | 2.28 · 3.81 · 3.34 |
| 01:00time provisional | Sevilla FC vs FC BarcelonaLa Liga | 18.3% | 21.8% | 59.9% | 0-110.8% | 0.96-1.92 | Away59.9% | 5.46 · 4.60 · 1.67 |
| 01:00time provisional | Valencia CF vs Real SociedadLa Liga | 50.2% | 25.2% | 24.6% | 1-112.0% | 1.57-1.02 | Home50.2% | 1.99 · 3.96 · 4.07 |
| 01:00time provisional | Villarreal CF vs Levante UDLa Liga | 77.4% | 14.4% | 8.3% | 2-012.0% | 2.60-0.74 | Home77.4% | 1.29 · 6.96 · 12.12 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30confirmed schedule | Fiorentina vs NapoliSerie A | 27.9% | 26.6% | 45.6% | 1-112.6% | 1.09-1.47 | Away45.6% | 3.59 · 3.76 · 2.20 |
| 14:00confirmed schedule | Frosinone vs ComoSerie A | 25.1% | 25.6% | 49.3% | 1-112.2% | 1.05-1.58 | Away49.3% | 3.98 · 3.90 · 2.03 |
| 14:00confirmed schedule | Parma vs GenoaSerie A | 40.7% | 28.1% | 31.2% | 1-113.2% | 1.29-1.10 | Home40.7% | 2.46 · 3.56 · 3.20 |
| 17:00confirmed schedule | Juventus vs AtalantaSerie A | 44.3% | 26.7% | 29.0% | 1-112.7% | 1.44-1.11 | Home44.3% | 2.26 · 3.74 · 3.45 |
| 19:45confirmed schedule | Milan vs LecceSerie A | 59.9% | 23.4% | 16.7% | 1-013.2% | 1.78-0.81 | Home59.9% | 1.67 · 4.28 · 5.98 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00time provisional | Wolverhampton Wanderers vs West Bromwich AlbionEFL Championship | 43.1% | 27.1% | 29.8% | 1-112.8% | 1.36-1.08 | Home43.1% | 2.32 · 3.69 · 3.35 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00confirmed schedule | AFC Bournemouth vs LiverpoolPremier League | 38.4% | 26.1% | 35.4% | 1-112.1% | 1.53-1.46 | Home38.4% | 2.60 · 3.83 · 2.82 |
| 16:30confirmed schedule | Fulham vs Manchester UnitedPremier League | 33.8% | 25.9% | 40.3% | 1-111.9% | 1.44-1.59 | Away40.3% | 2.96 · 3.87 · 2.48 |
| Kick-off | Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Likely score | xG | Strongest | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30confirmed schedule | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs RB LeipzigBundesliga | 48.7% | 23.8% | 27.5% | 1-110.5% | 1.89-1.37 | Home48.7% | 2.05 · 4.21 · 3.64 |
| 16:30confirmed schedule | FC Schalke 04 vs SV ElversbergBundesliga | 45.8% | 24.3% | 29.9% | 1-110.9% | 1.79-1.41 | Home45.8% | 2.18 · 4.11 · 3.35 |
| 18:30confirmed schedule | SC Paderborn 07 vs TSG HoffenheimBundesliga | 34.7% | 24.3% | 40.9% | 1-110.6% | 1.57-1.72 | Away40.9% | 2.88 · 4.11 · 2.44 |
Every outcome is expressed as a chance. The largest chance can still lose.
Fixture status, model version and update date are published beside the board.
Bookmaker prices never change the core sporting forecast.
Model-draw and format-only UEFA pairings are excluded from daily listings.