AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool prediction
HORIZON 6.2 makes AFC Bournemouth win the strongest outcome at 38.4%. The most likely score is 1-1, derived from 100,000 complete season paths.
AFC BournemouthBOU51.4 projected points
LiverpoolLIV59.9 projected points
EXACT-SCORE MODEL
Most likely Bournemouth vs Liverpool scores
The modal score is useful, but the surrounding distribution is more honest. These are the five most likely exact outcomes.
12.1%
8.6%
8.2%
6.8%
6.4%
Bournemouth 1.53 · Liverpool 1.46
The score matrix begins with venue-adjusted expected goals before uncertainty is sampled.
35.3% to 46.4%
The Bournemouth home-win range across 24 posterior team-strength states.
11 vs 4
Current mean projected league positions for Bournemouth and Liverpool.
Matchweek 5
Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 14:00 UK time
MODEL DRIVERS
What shapes this prediction
Latent strength
-0.28 home differential
Venue
24% league scoring uplift
Sustainable form
+0.012 xG-trend differential
Squad inputs
+0.042 goal-rate signal
Recent results
+0.007 EWMA state differential
MATCH FAQ
Bournemouth vs Liverpool prediction questions
Who is predicted to win AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
AFC Bournemouth win is the strongest modelled 1X2 outcome at 38.4%. The draw is 26.1%.
What is the predicted score for AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
The most likely exact score is AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Liverpool, with an estimated probability of 12.1%.
Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
The model gives both teams to score a 61.0% probability and over 2.5 total goals a 57.4% probability.
When is AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool is scheduled for Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 14:00 UK time.